The Maple Leafs have reached an early-season checkpoint in goal, and the question is hard to ignore: do they hand the crease fully to Sergei Bobrovsky, or keep riding the tandem a little longer?
On the surface, the numbers make the debate look closer than anyone expected. Bobrovsky has just one win so far this year, while Anthony Stolarz has two.
That alone has stirred up the starter conversation, especially with Bobrovsky having already allowed a few goals that looked very stoppable. The early noise has even prompted questions about whether he’s past his prime.
But the longer these games stretch on, the more Bobrovsky seems to find his rhythm. He has a habit of settling in late and coming up with the kind of saves that keep the Maple Leafs breathing when the pressure tightens.
That’s where the deeper numbers tell a very different story.
Bobrovsky has 4.7 goals saved above expected, which puts him seventh so far this season. That group includes Ilya Sorokin, Sergei Murashov, and former Maple Leafs goalie Joseph Woll. What makes Bobrovsky’s start stand out even more is the volume of danger he’s facing: his expected goals against chance is 16.68, the highest among those goalies mentioned.
In other words, he’s been asked to do a lot, and he’s doing enough to keep Toronto alive in key moments. Even with the defense not always doing him favors, he’s been the one holding things together in the crease.
If this is the version of Bobrovsky Toronto gets, the outlook looks pretty encouraging. The start hasn’t been clean, and you’d still want a stronger opening from your No. 1, but some of that can be traced back to the lack of support in front of him.
Stolarz, though, should not be pushed aside. He’s been one of the bright spots early on, and he looks like a more confident and healthier player than he did a season ago. He’s 2-0-0 with a 2.44 GAA and a .904 SV% so far, and before Bobrovsky beat Colorado on Saturday night, he was the only goalie providing wins for the Maple Leafs.
This is the kind of setup the Maple Leafs expected when John Chayka brought in Bobrovsky. Stolarz needs a partner who can absorb the rough patches if the starts aren’t perfect, and that arrangement also lets him focus on staying healthy and playing his best hockey.
So even with a few shaky goals already on the ledger, Bobrovsky’s ability to keep Toronto afloat gives him the edge for now. He should keep the crease until further notice, because at the very least, he’s giving the Maple Leafs a reason to believe.
In Other News...
Maple Leafs Suddenly Face A Blue Line Problem Without Chris Tanev
The Maple Leafs have had to reshuffle their blue line after veteran defenseman T.J. Tanev left Saturday nights win over the Avalanche in the first period with an upper-body injury. Toronto has since placed him on injured reserve, a development that forces the team to lean on its depth a little earlier than planned and puts added pressure on a defense group that has already been working through adjustments under coach Jim Hiller.
Marshall Rifai was recalled from the Marlies to give the Maple Leafs another option on the back end, while Nick Blankenburg has been asked to take on a bigger role in Tanevs absence. For a team that values stability on defense, the mix-and-match look is not ideal, and it leaves Toronto waiting to see how quickly it can settle its pairings once Tanev is available again. [Read more 🡒]
Auston Matthews May Be Unlocking Something New Under Jim Hiller
Auston Matthews has wasted little time giving the Maple Leafs a reason to look twice at what has changed around him. In a short run under Jim Hiller, Matthews has already produced two four-point games, a burst that stands out next to the more limited high-end scoring he had across two seasons under Craig Berube. The sample is tiny, but it is hard not to notice the difference when one of the leagues most dangerous finishers starts flashing that kind of ceiling again.
The explanation may not be simple, and it probably is not just about Matthews suddenly seeing the ice differently. Coaching style, ice time, linemates and power-play usage all come into the conversation here, because those are the details that can either feed a scorer or starve him of chances. The Leafs are still early in this evaluation, but if Hiller is opening up new offensive lanes for Matthews, it is the sort of adjustment that could matter well beyond a six-game snapshot. [Read more 🡒]
William Nylander Is Driving Why The Maple Leafs Look Dangerous Again
William Nylander keeps giving the Maple Leafs the kind of offensive push that changes the feel of a game before it even settles in. In Torontos 6-3 win over Colorado, he was central to everything, helping fuel a stretch that has the Leafs looking far more dangerous early in the season and making life easier for teammates who have been able to build off that momentum.
The scoring burst also fit neatly into the bigger arc of Nylanders career in Toronto, where his production has become the kind of steady force this team can lean on. With the way he is driving play right now, the Leafs are getting both immediate results and a reminder that their top-end skill can tilt a night quickly when he is rolling. [Read more 🡒]