Topi Niemela’s Development at a Crossroads - But the Book Isn’t Closed Yet
When the Toronto Maple Leafs selected Topi Niemela in the third round of the 2020 NHL Draft (64th overall), there was a clear vision: a mobile, puck-moving defenseman who could one day anchor the blue line in Toronto. The kind of player you trust in transition, who sees the ice a step ahead, and who isn’t afraid to jump into the play. Fast forward to today, and while that vision hasn’t fully materialized, it’s not quite time to shut the door on Niemela’s NHL future.
Let’s rewind for a moment. Niemela’s early career trajectory had all the right markers.
His time with Kärpät in Finland’s Liiga during the 2021-22 season was a breakout - 32 points in 48 games from the back end is no small feat in a pro league known for its structure and defensive discipline. He followed that up with a strong 2023-24 campaign in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, where he led all Marlies defensemen with 39 points (eight goals, 31 assists).
That season, he wasn’t just producing - he was driving play, quarterbacking the power play, and showing flashes of the two-way upside that made him such an intriguing pick.
But like with many young defensemen, the road hasn’t been linear.
The 2024-25 season brought a step back. Niemela managed just 22 points in 61 games, and while he still ranked second among Marlies defensemen in scoring, the drop-off from the prior year was noticeable.
His assist totals remained respectable, but the offensive spark wasn’t quite the same. Whether it was a confidence dip, a shift in role, or simply the grind of development catching up to him, it was clear he had hit a bump in the road.
Now, he’s spending this season overseas with the Malmö Redhawks in the SHL - a league known for its pace and competitiveness. Through 43 games, Niemela has posted 15 points (four goals, 11 assists), which places him second among Redhawks defensemen in scoring.
But let’s be honest - those are modest numbers for a player once projected to be a top-pairing NHL blueliner. In his last 10 games, he’s registered just three points (two goals, one assist), including a goal and assist over his last five.
It’s not the kind of production that screams “breakout,” but it’s also not devoid of value.
So where does that leave things?
At 23 years old, Niemela is still young by defenseman standards. This isn’t a case of a player aging out of relevance - it’s more about whether he can rediscover the form that once made him one of the Leafs’ more intriguing prospects.
The flashes are still there: the poise with the puck, the vision in the offensive zone, the willingness to activate and take a shot when the lane opens up. But flashes need to become consistency, especially with a one-year contract ticking down.
The Redhawks’ final regular-season SHL game is scheduled for March 13. That gives Niemela a narrow window to make an impression - not just in Malmö, but potentially back in Toronto.
If he can finish strong, show the kind of assertiveness and offensive instincts that defined his best AHL and Liiga stretches, the Leafs could very well look to bring him back into the fold. The organization hasn’t forgotten what he’s capable of - but time, as always, is a factor.
The development window? It’s not closed.
But it’s definitely not wide open either. Niemela’s next few weeks could go a long way in determining whether he can still carve out a role in the NHL - or if his path forward will continue outside of North America.
The tools are still there. Now it’s about putting them all together, one shift at a time.