Maple Leafs Optimism Suddenly Hinges On One Risk Fans Know Too Well

As the NHL season approaches, Martin Biron makes a compelling case for why this could be the Toronto Maple Leafs' breakthrough year, crediting strategic offseason moves and key player dynamics.

Martin Biron isn’t backing off his Toronto Maple Leafs take.

More than a month after free agency, the TSN analyst and former NHL goaltender still has the Leafs among his top five teams of the offseason, and he made it clear on TSN’s OverDrive that he hasn’t changed his mind. Guest host Jim Tatti pressed him on Toronto’s summer work, and Biron walked through the big pieces one by one: Gavin McKenna, Auston Matthews, Sergei Bobrovsky and a defense group that has drawn its share of criticism.

The first name he circled was McKenna, and Biron sees a fit with Matthews that could matter right away. He wondered whether the first overall pick can help Matthews get back to the kind of scoring pace that once pushed him past 60 goals.

"So, is Gavin McKenna going to have that influence? I think it's going to be a good match," said Biron.

Biron doesn’t expect the rookie to explode for 80 points in his first season, but he did lay out a line that would still make a real impact: 15 goals and 45 assists for 60 points. And if 30 of those assists feed Matthews, Biron believes the former Rocket Richard winner could get back to 50 goals or more.

From there, Biron turned to the crease, where he sees Sergei Bobrovsky as a major stabilizer. He acknowledged that Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were effective when healthy, but availability is part of the job, and he said that was a problem.

On Bobrovsky, Biron pointed to the kind of resume Toronto has been missing. "You have to go get a guy that, you know, number one, loves to play and plays often, and is a workhorse, and (has) been there, done that.

I think the addition of Sergei Bobrovsky could be the difference-maker for me," he said.

Biron went as far as saying Bobrovsky could help Toronto land in the top two or three in the Atlantic Division. Still, when co-host Frankie Corrado asked which player mattered more for the Maple Leafs in 2026-27, Biron chose Matthews.

He said Bobrovsky may no longer be an elite-stat machine, but he can still come up with the big save at the right time. Even so, Biron sees Matthews as the engine.

If the star forward is playing at a Rocket Richard, Hart Trophy-level, Biron believes that will drive more wins than even Vezina-level goaltending.

The last major piece for Biron was the defense, and his answer came down to Chris Tanev’s health. "It's good enough to me if (Chris) Tanev can stay healthy," he replied. He also praised Emil Andrae as "a good, young defenseman that has a lot of upside."

Biron said the mix of Darren Raddysh, Jake McCabe and Tanev should take some of the burden off Morgan Rielly, who won’t need to be the "top dog" anymore. On the blue line, Biron summed it up simply: "I like what they've got."

For Biron, the Leafs’ upside still comes back to the same formula: star power, a steadier goalie situation and enough health on defense to keep the whole thing together. The optimism is there, but the path to a real resurgence runs through Matthews, McKenna, Bobrovsky and Tanev staying on the ice.

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