The Toronto Maple Leafs are facing a familiar kind of problem with Auston Matthews: the better he looks now, the more painful his next deal could be later.
That’s the tradeoff sitting right in front of the organization. Matthews is headed for free agency in 2027-28, and if he gets back to his old scoring form, the price tag is only going one way. With names like Cale Makar already pushing past $20 million per season, Toronto knows exactly what kind of market it may be stepping into.
Right now, Matthews is on a $13.25-million contract that accounted for 15.06% of the cap when it kicked in. Under a hypothetical $130-million ceiling, a $20-million deal would land at roughly 15.4% - almost the same cap hit, even if the raw dollars jump by nearly $7 million.
That’s the kind of math that makes this situation so tricky for the Leafs. If Matthews doesn’t rediscover the scoring touch that made him one of the league’s elite finishers, then his next contract becomes less daunting. But that version of the conversation comes with a catch: Toronto would also be getting less of the player it needs most.
Over the past two seasons, injuries have played a role in Matthews’ drop-off. He appeared in 60 games last season and 67 the year before. The missed time explains part of the dip, but it doesn’t erase the fact that his production has also come down.
That’s why a return to a 50-goal season would change everything. If Matthews can do that under head coach Jim Hiller, he restores his leverage in a big way. The Leafs would lose the ability to point at the last two seasons as a reason to keep the number down.
And that’s the heart of it: contracts are built around what a player is expected to be next, not just what he once was. If Matthews shows again that he can score like the best in the league, then his next AAV climbs fast.
Toronto can’t reasonably hope for middling seasons just to save money. At that point, Matthews would be worth less to the team on the ice and in the market. The Leafs need him to be an elite scorer if they want any real shot at contending, even if that means paying a premium when the next deal comes due.
So the best-case hockey outcome and the easiest cap outcome are pulling in opposite directions. If Matthews gets back to being Matthews, Toronto should expect the bill to be steep. For the Leafs, that may still be the price of doing business.
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Toronto still holds his rights, but there has been no indication the club is ready to turn that into a roster move or even a trade. The Leafs have one more year before those rights expire, which leaves Der-Arguchintsev in a strange middle ground: still technically connected to the organization, but without a firm commitment that he will get another shot to return to North America. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Prospects Already Gave Steve Sullivan A Tougher Decision
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Luke Haymes, Timofei Obvintsev, Ben Danford and Alex Bilecki all drew mention from Sullivan for the way they contributed and continued to grow in the setting. He also pointed to the special-teams swings as part of the teaching moment, since those situations can change a prospect game quickly and force coaches to weigh execution against development when the dust settles. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Prospect Showcase Just Put Two Camp Storylines In Focus
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Tinus Luc Koblar was another name that stood out, collecting three assists and playing with the kind of confidence that can change how a prospect is viewed heading into the next level. For a club trying to sort out which young players can push beyond a showcase setting and into real organizational plans, that kind of performance matters. It also leaves Toronto with at least one appealing question coming out of the weekend: how close Koblar is to carving out a place with the Marlies. [Read more 🡒]