The Toronto Maple Leafs may have found one of their clearest early-season answers in goal.
That was one of the bigger questions hanging over the club when the 2026-27 NHL season opened: what would the reunion of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz look like in Toronto? A few games in, the early returns are pointing in a very encouraging direction. Not only has the tandem held up, it has already started to look like a real strength for the Maple Leafs, with the numbers backing it up.
The most eye-catching marker is goals saved above expected, or GSAx. It’s a straightforward way to measure how many goals a goalie prevents relative to what an average netminder would be expected to allow based on the quality of shots faced. Put simply, when the number is positive, the goalie is doing more than the model says he should.
As of October 11, Toronto sat second among the NHL’s 32 teams with a plus-6.2 GSAx. Only the New York Rangers were ahead at plus-6.8, and they had a healthy Igor Shesterkin. For the Maple Leafs, that’s a strong sign early in the year, especially for a team that hasn’t had much game-stealing work from its goaltending in recent memory.
Bobrovsky, in particular, has given Toronto plenty to like beneath the surface.
Through four appearances, he owns a 1-2-1 record with a .907 save percentage and a 2.97 goals-against average. Those are solid but not dazzling numbers on the page, and they don’t fully capture how well he’s tracked in the advanced metrics. After his fourth start and first win with the Maple Leafs, Bobrovsky ranked seventh among NHL goaltenders in GSAx at plus-4.7 as of October 11.
That means he has stopped just over four more goals than the average NHL goalie would have been expected to stop. For Toronto, that matters. A goalie who can outplay the shot quality he sees gives a team a real chance to tilt close games, and that kind of edge has been hard to come by for the Maple Leafs over the last decade.
Stolarz has been quieter in terms of workload, but his early work has also landed in positive territory. He posted a 0.26 GSAx in two games this season, along with a 2.44 GAA and a .904 SV%. Those surface numbers are decent, though they sit in a season where the league-wide save percentage has dropped to .891.
There’s also reason to look back at what Stolarz did the last time he paired with Bobrovsky in Florida during 2023-24. He went 16-7-2 in 27 regular-season games, finishing with a 2.03 GAA and a .925 SV%.
It’s still early, and plenty can change over the course of a season. But if Bobrovsky keeps building into the job and Stolarz continues to give Toronto dependable minutes, the Maple Leafs may already have one of their biggest strengths in place. The tandem is off to a start that gives the team and its fanbase real reason to feel better about the crease.
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Bo Groulx Suddenly Looks Like A Leaf Fighting For His Spot
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Groulx has yet to record a point in five games this year, and his NHL resume still sits at 10 points in 83 games. For a team that is always weighing depth, fit and long-term flexibility, a decision like this can hint at bigger conversations ahead, including the possibility that Toronto is already exploring other options for how to shape the roster. [Read more 🡒]