The Toronto Maple Leafs have spent the early part of John Chayka’s tenure making it clear they want a different look on the blue line, and Morgan Rielly is right in the middle of that shift.
Chayka, hired as general manager in early May, wasted no time moving the roster toward his vision. His first major move was a trade-and-sign deal for Darren Raddysh, who came over from the Tampa Bay Lightning and immediately landed an eight-year contract worth $8.5 million per season. Raddysh is coming off a huge year - 22 goals and 70 points in 73 games - and the plan is straightforward: let him take over as Toronto’s top offensive defenceman and handle the No. 1 power-play unit.
That fit makes sense on paper. Raddysh shoots right, and that could mesh better with left-shot players like Auston Matthews and John Tavares on the power play than Rielly does. The bigger question is what happens to Rielly from here.
There’s a case for moving him. If Toronto wants Raddysh and Rielly on the same side, the cleanest setup would be pairing an offensive defenceman with a more defensive partner, not stacking two puck-movers together. That would leave the Leafs paying a second-pairing defenceman $7.5 million, which is exactly why a trade starts to look appealing.
But Toronto’s leverage is shaky. Once a team starts openly shopping a player, the market usually cools fast, especially when the move looks like a salary dump.
Rielly also has a full no-movement clause, meaning he can approve or block any deal. According to the reporting, he has already given Toronto a list of four teams he would be willing to join, which only tightens the squeeze on the Leafs.
The criticism of Rielly is familiar: he has never been a shutdown defender, he’s 32, and his production has slipped. Still, there’s a strong argument that some of that decline is tied to how he’s been used.
Under former GM Brad Treliving and head coach Craig Berube, the Leafs pushed a bigger, stronger, more physical style. Rielly is listed at around 220 lbs at 6-foot-1, and the added muscle appears to be real.
His neck, as noted in recent interviews, looks like that of a bodybuilder.
That added bulk may not have helped his skating. Rielly has never been a pure straight-line burner; his game has always been built on a fluid stride, vision, and mobility. More weight can take a little of that away.
The numbers back up the concern. His point totals have gone from 58 to 41 to 36 over the last three seasons, while his plus/minus has slid from plus-7 to minus-8 to minus-18. That drop happened during the Treliving-Berube stretch.
Auston Matthews has also seen a steep decline in production over the last two seasons. He went from 107 points in 2023-24 to 69 in 2024-25 and then 53 last season.
His plus/minus fell from plus-31 to minus-4 over that same span. The common thread, at least in this view, was a system built around defence first.
Now Jim Hiller enters the picture as the new head coach. He’s also known as a defensive-minded coach, but the difference is in how he wants his teams to defend: through possession. If you have the puck, the other team doesn’t.
That part matters for Rielly. Possession is his game.
He wants the puck on his stick, and that has always been the best version of him. Hiller already knows him from his time as a Maple Leafs assistant coach, and both Hiller and Chayka are strong believers in analytics.
Before the last two seasons, Rielly’s underlying numbers were consistently positive. His defensive metrics were usually middle of the pack, but his offensive impact more than made up for it.
If Toronto wants to get the most out of him, the answer may be to trim him down, not bulk him up. A leaner, quicker offseason program - more skating, more stamina, less emphasis on lifting - could help restore what makes him dangerous. The puck skills and vision aren’t going anywhere.
Even if he ends up on the second pair and the second power-play unit, Rielly would still be a puck-moving threat from the back end. And Hiller would still have the option of using a left-right offensive pairing when the situation calls for it.
There’s also a market angle here. If the Maple Leafs rebound and push for a playoff spot, Rielly could still be a useful piece.
But if Toronto misses the postseason in 2027, his trade value could jump. Right now, a deal would likely look like a salary dump, and the return would be minimal.
If he bounces back, though, a middle-to-late first-round pick would not be out of the question.
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