Adam Fantilli is the kind of name that can make a front office start doing math in a hurry. He’s still unsigned after a 59-point season, and with a second straight 50-plus-point year in Columbus, the 21-year-old center is firmly in the offer-sheet conversation.
Toronto would love to get in on that chase. The problem is that the Maple Leafs don’t have the draft-pick setup to make it work.
Fantilli’s value has climbed after a strong run on his entry-level deal, where he also piled up 139 hits and won nearly 50% of his face-offs. But once the offer-sheet number gets beyond $4,775,666 per season, the compensation jumps to a 2027 first-round pick and a 2027 third-round pick. Toronto doesn’t own either of those picks anymore.
The first-rounder went to Philadelphia in the Scott Laughton trade, along with Nikita Grebenkin. The third-round pick was sent to Utah in the Matias Maccelli deal. Toronto’s 2027 pick from Colorado does not count for compensation purposes.
And if Fantilli’s deal climbed all the way to $9.52 million per season, the price would get even steeper: two first-round picks, a second-rounder and a third-rounder, all Toronto’s own.
That’s where the idea starts running into a wall. The Leafs could try to get those picks back through other trades, but that would mean paying up again just to create the ability to pay up again. On top of that, Toronto is already $2.75 million over the cap and would need room before making any major move.
Even if the picks were somehow recovered, the cap puzzle would still be ugly. Toronto would be looking at a maximum allowable salary of $7,163,498 per season, which would require clearing $9,913,498 just to break even on the deal. Waiving depth players wouldn’t get them there, and Max Domi’s LTIR relief only covers about a third of that amount.
At that point, a real contract would have to be moved. Morgan Rielly carries a $7.5 million AAV, while Dakota Joshua ($3.25 million), Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3.5 million) and Chris Tanev ($4.5 million) are among the other names that could be part of a larger shuffle.
So while Fantilli would be a tempting target, the path for John Chayka and the Maple Leafs is loaded with obstacles. The idea is appealing, but right now it looks a lot more like fantasy than a realistic plan.
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