The Tampa Bay Lightning wasted no time getting into the swing of free agency, and their July 1 business already comes with some clear winners, one head-scratcher, and a roster shuffle that could matter right away.
The most eye-catching addition is John Carlson, who signed for two years at an $8.5 million AAV. Tampa Bay clearly viewed him as the replacement for Darren Raddysh, and the price tag lands in the same neighborhood.
That cap hit is tough to love, but the shorter term softens the blow, especially for a player who brought 60 points last season - his fifth-highest total and his best since 71 in 2021-22. A quarter of that offense came on the power play, which matters because that was a need the Lightning had to address.
Carlson has usually offered more offense than defense depending on the year, so the real question is what version of him shows up. Still, from a pure talent standpoint, it’s a strong pickup.
Grade: B+
Ilya Mikheyev’s four-year deal at a $3.85 million AAV feels much more straightforward. It gives Tampa Bay bottom-six depth at a manageable number, and the contract should age more comfortably as the salary cap rises.
Mikheyev profiles as a player who can chip in around 20 goals and 35 points, which is close to what the Lightning might have expected from Oliver Bjorkstrand at a discount. He’s the same age, too, which matters for a team that isn’t getting any younger.
He’s also picked up Selke votes in each of the last two seasons, and you can always use another reliable two-way forward. The one thing he probably doesn’t solve is the center issue, since his career faceoff percentage sits at 26.5%.
Grade: B
Then there’s Jeffrey Viel, and this is the deal that needs the most unpacking. Tampa Bay gave him five years at $2.5 million AAV, which means $12 million total for a 30-year-old forward with 99 NHL games across parts of five seasons.
That’s a lot of term for a player with that resume. At the same time, the Lightning did get the kind of depth and physical edge they were clearly chasing.
Viel had 121 hits in 45 games last season, which translates to an 84-game pace of 225 hits. According to Lightning reporter Gabby Shirley, Veil said he’s in a more confident place and would be able to make plays and contribute offensively, along with fighting.
If that turns out to be real, the contract could look a lot better. For now, though, the length keeps this in wait-and-see territory.
Grade: C
The biggest roster shakeup of the day came with the trade sending Nick Paul to the Maple Leafs for goalie Dennis Hildeby, a fourth-round pick in 2027 and a third-round pick in 2028. Losing Paul will sting for fans, but the Lightning may have quietly solved a problem in the process.
They needed another goalie option, and Hildeby fits that bill while coming in cheaper at $841,667. Last season, he posted a .912 save percentage in 20 games, while Jonas Johansson was at .884.
Tampa Bay also gets some draft capital in a system that doesn’t have a lot of it. And by making this move without adding extra assets, Julien BriseBois did well to hold onto value.
It also suggests Harrison Meneghin isn’t ready yet, but the Lightning have taken a shot at a new backup and cleared cap space in the process.
Grade: A
This is only the first wave of the offseason, and the early read could still change depending on what else Tampa Bay does before opening night. If another major move comes along, it’ll deserve its own look later on.
In Other News...
Maple Leafs Must Avoid These 3 Free Agent Traps
With free agency looming, the Maple Leafs are doing the same kind of homework every contender does this time of year: separating names that sound useful from players who could create bigger problems down the road. Boone Jenner brings the appeal of a hardworking middle-six presence, Rasmus Andersson offers the profile of a right-shot defenseman in demand, and Sergei Bobrovsky is a proven veteran goaler with plenty of experience. But the case for caution is built into each one, from Jenners recent injury pattern to questions about whether Andersson is worth the price if the postseason is part of the evaluation.
Bobrovsky is the toughest fit to miss on paper because of the position he plays, but the numbers attached to his most recent season are hard to ignore, and age only adds to the uncertainty. Anderssons playoff rsum also invites scrutiny, especially for a team that wants its additions to hold up when the games get tighter. For Toronto, the larger lesson is familiar: a recognizable name can still be the wrong bet if it costs too much, ages poorly, or nudges the roster in the wrong direction. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Could Quietly Define Their Summer With These Forward Targets
With the salary cap still shaping every summer decision, the Maple Leafs are looking at the market through a familiar lens: finding forwards who can help without forcing a major commitment. The appeal here is straightforward. Toronto needs more punch up front, but it also needs flexibility, and that makes the middle tier of free agency especially important for a team trying to stay competitive while keeping its books manageable.
What gives this search some intrigue is the range of fits available if the price lands in the right place. One option brings speed on the wing and some right-shot balance, another carries the familiarity of a former Leaf who could make sense as a value reunion, and another comes with the kind of buy-low appeal that can tempt a front office if it believes the players recent dip is tied to injury rather than long-term decline. For Toronto, the summer may come down less to splash and more to choosing the right kind of useful. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Fans Just Got A Sudden Twist In The Werenski Chase
Trade chatter around Zach Werenski has quieted for the moment after reports indicated the Blue Jackets defenseman, his agent Judd Moldaver and Columbus GM Don Waddell spoke to address the recent speculation. For Maple Leafs fans who had started to wonder whether a big swing was suddenly available on the blue line, the update is a reminder that these conversations can move fast, then stall just as quickly, especially when a player holds the kind of control Werenski does.
Werenskis no-movement clause has always made any potential deal complicated, and this latest round of reporting suggests the noise may have been more about clearing the air than opening a real door. Still, the fact that Toronto keeps showing up in the conversation tells you why the Leafs were paying attention in the first place, with any serious pursuit likely to come down to whether Columbus ever decides to revisit the idea and what kind of return would even be possible. [Read more 🡒]