The Toronto Maple Leafs have found their stride lately, stringing together a strong run that’s pulled them back into the playoff conversation. But momentum alone won’t carry them across the finish line. If the Leafs want to solidify their spot in the postseason, they’ll need to start doing something they’ve struggled with all year-beating teams in their own division.
The Atlantic Division isn’t just competitive-it’s a gauntlet. Multiple teams are surging, and two of them currently occupy the wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference.
That means every divisional game isn’t just another two points on the schedule-it’s a direct shot at your playoff rivals. And right now, Toronto’s missing the mark.
As part of a five-game homestand, the Leafs have a chance to turn that around, starting with a crucial matchup against the Detroit Red Wings. But Detroit isn’t the same team Toronto used to dominate. In fact, the Red Wings have flipped the script this season.
Detroit has spent most of the 2025-26 campaign sitting comfortably in the top three of the Atlantic, and their success against Toronto is a big reason why. The two teams met in a back-to-back early in October-Detroit took both games, winning 6-3 at home and 3-2 in Toronto.
That early sweep wasn’t just a pair of wins for the Wings; it set the tone for both teams’ seasons. Detroit took off.
Toronto, meanwhile, has been playing catch-up ever since.
The third meeting between these two came on December 28 in Detroit, and once again, the Red Wings came out on top-this time in overtime, 3-2. That gives Detroit a 6-1 points edge in the season series, a head-to-head advantage that’s directly contributing to their current eight-point lead over the Leafs in the standings.
And it’s not just Detroit causing problems. The Buffalo Sabres have also had Toronto’s number this season.
Back in October, the two teams played on consecutive nights. Buffalo won the first game at home, 5-3, then edged out the Leafs 4-3 in overtime the following night in Toronto.
That’s a 4-1 points advantage for Buffalo, who, not coincidentally, is clinging to the final wild-card spot-just one point ahead of the Leafs.
When you zoom out, the divisional picture doesn’t get much prettier. Toronto is 6-6-2 in the Atlantic this season.
That’s behind Tampa Bay (6-3-1), Detroit (9-4-2), Montreal (9-6-1), and Buffalo (8-3-2). For comparison, last season’s Maple Leafs won the division on the back of a 17-8-1 divisional record.
That kind of dominance is missing this time around.
To their credit, the Leafs are coming off a solid road trip, picking up five of a possible eight points against some of the league’s elite-including the league-leading Colorado Avalanche and the Pacific Division’s top team, the Vegas Golden Knights. But the road doesn’t get any easier.
The next stretch of the homestand features matchups with Detroit, Vegas, Colorado again, and then Buffalo. That’s a playoff-caliber gauntlet, and the margin for error is razor-thin.
The loss to Minnesota that opened the homestand was a missed opportunity. But the real test comes now.
If Toronto wants to keep its playoff hopes alive-and not just sneak in, but build something sustainable-they’ll need to take care of business against Detroit and Buffalo. And not just scrape by in overtime.
Regulation wins are the only way to claw back ground in this tight race.
With just over 30 games left in the regular season, head coach Craig Berube and captain Auston Matthews have to get the message across: divisional games are everything right now. The Leafs have the talent.
They’ve shown they can hang with the best out West. But if they can’t solve their Atlantic Division puzzle, they’ll be watching the playoffs from home.