When the Toronto Maple Leafs handed Sergei Bobrovsky a three-year, $21 million deal, the reaction around the move came fast. Fans and pundits questioned it right away, and for good reason: Toronto committed that money to a 38-year-old goalie after one of the worst seasons of his career, while also giving him a full no-movement clause.
Now there’s a study to back up what many already suspected. As discussed by Anna Ryan of Casino Guru News, Bobrovsky ranks as the fifth-most overpaid player in the NHL.
The study used Hockey Reference’s Point Shares and compared them to cap hits to determine the league’s best and worst contracts. At the top of the list was Jonathan Huberdeau of the Calgary Flames, who came in as the most overpaid player with a score of 88/100.
Bobrovsky followed in fifth with a score of 73/100.
The biggest drag on his ranking was simple enough: he allowed 156 goals in 52 games last season. With a $7 million cap hit attached to that production, the numbers paint an ugly picture for the Maple Leafs’ new starter.
The real question now is whether Bobrovsky can make the deal look better in Toronto. The short answer is yes - if he turns in a season closer to the level he’s shown in the past.
But that’s where the uncertainty starts. How much Bobrovsky can deliver will depend heavily on what’s happening in front of him.
If the Leafs play like a solid defensive team, he should be able to settle in. If they keep leaving him exposed, he may not look like the goalie Toronto thought it was buying.
And if the season goes sideways? Then the Leafs could be stuck with a major problem in the crease. In that worst-case scenario, Bobrovsky would be tough to move because of the no-trade protection, leaving the organization with little flexibility if things unravel.
For Toronto, the hope is much simpler: reliable goaltending. If Bobrovsky can give them upwards of 50 games this season, the Leafs would be in position to stay in the playoff race, assuming the rest of the roster does its part.
In Other News...
Canadiens Goalie Battle Is Putting Serious Pressure On One Familiar Name
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For the Leafs, the bigger roster conversation is still centered on Morgan Rielly, whose game is being reassessed as the team looks for ways to keep his offense in play without asking him to carry the same defensive burden. The next phase could determine whether he settles into a different sort of role, one that better fits the roster around him, or whether Toronto eventually has to make an even tougher call if that adjustment does not produce the kind of fit the club wants. [Read more 🡒]
Morgan Rielly Trade Talk Just Got A Crucial New Measuring Stick
The veteran defense market is getting a useful reference point in Detroit, where Justin Faulks situation has become one to watch. The Red Wings brought him in at last years trade deadline, but with turnover on the roster and younger players like Axel Sandin-Pellikka pushing into the picture, his place in the long-term plan is less certain than it once looked.
For the Maple Leafs, that matters because Toronto has been monitoring Faulks market as a way to gauge what a veteran blue-liner with a meaningful cap hit can bring back. Morgan Rielly sits in a different category entirely, with four years left on his deal and a no-movement clause, so any conversation around him is more complicated than a simple like-for-like comparison. Still, if Faulk draws real interest, it could sharpen the Leafs view of just how difficult it would be to move a defenseman on Riellys terms. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs May Need To Rethink 3 Big Training Camp Assumptions
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A closer look suggests Toronto may want to slow down on all three judgments. NHL tracking data points to Tavares being less cumbersome than the public narrative says, McKenna could have more room to grow into a role instead of being rushed into the spotlight, and Cowan might be worth a look down the middle if the Leafs want to explore different options. None of that settles the camp questions, but it does make the early roster debates a little more interesting than the usual guesswork. [Read more 🡒]