The NHL’s latest expansion talk is no longer just background noise, and that matters for the Maple Leafs in a very specific way: the contracts they hand out now could shape what Toronto is forced to do later.
The league has opened a six-month evaluation process with the Friedkin family about a possible franchise in Houston or Austin, with Atlanta and Arizona still in the mix as well. Nothing is locked in, and there’s no expansion date sitting on the calendar. But if the rumor mill turns into reality, the Maple Leafs won’t be able to treat future contract decisions like business as usual.
For Toronto, the key issue is simple. Long-term deals, cap hits and contract protection could all influence who gets protected in an expansion draft, who gets exposed and who becomes a problem the team can’t easily move.
If the NHL follows the Seattle model again, clubs would likely choose between protecting seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters and one goalie. Players with active no-movement clauses would need to be protected, while first- and second-year professionals and unsigned draft picks would be exempt.
That makes no-movement clauses a major headache. A player with that kind of protection essentially takes up a protection spot whether the team likes it or not. That can squeeze a roster fast, especially if a contract is already risky.
Toronto would have to think about that carefully with players such as Nylander, Tanev, or Raddysh if they were carrying an NMC and didn’t waive it before the draft. A bad contract with trade protection could end up forcing the Leafs to leave someone more valuable exposed.
And that’s the real shift here: it’s not just term and cap hit anymore. If expansion is coming, management has to factor in how each contract might play in that draft format. Teams that hand out protection too freely could corner themselves.
There’s also the prospect side of the equation, and that part is harder to pin down. A player like Koblar could still be exempt in his second year under the Seattle rules, which adds another layer of uncertainty to who Toronto would actually need to protect.
The Leafs do have young high-end talent in the system already, including a first overall pick and one of the best power forwards in the NHL. If those players keep developing, Toronto could be pushed into exposing a veteran instead. That could force the front office into a decision earlier than it wants.
And then there’s Auston Matthews, who has only two years left on his deal. By the time any expansion draft arrives, it’s fair to wonder whether he would even be part of the conversation.
Toronto could also choose a different path and pay draft compensation to avoid the expansion draft altogether, then get creative with the rest of its moves. That kind of maneuvering is possible, but it probably wouldn’t come cheap.
The Leafs have already lived through the downside of this process. In 2021, they acquired Jared McCann shortly before the draft, but their protection setup left both McCann and Alexander Kerfoot available. Seattle took McCann, and he later scored 40 goals in a season for the Kraken.
That kind of lesson is exactly why this next wave of Leafs contracts suddenly matters so much.
In Other News...
Oilers Fans Just Got A Tough Reminder About Darnell Nurse
Auston Matthews remains one of the biggest long-term storylines for the Maple Leafs, even if the present mood around him sounds more relaxed than dramatic. John Chayka recently described him as a happy captain, a small but notable reminder that Toronto still has a franchise centerpiece in place while the bigger questions keep circling around what comes next.
The uncertainty is what keeps this interesting for Leafs fans. There still are no clear answers on Matthews contract future, and with the market constantly shifting around star players and big-money deals, every passing update seems to carry a little more weight. Toronto may be enjoying the stability of having Matthews at the top of the lineup, but the real conversation is still about how long that stability lasts. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Have A Goalie Decision Fans Should Be Watching
Artur Akhtyamovs name is getting harder to ignore around the Maple Leafs organization after his standout playoff run with the Toronto Marlies. He helped the AHL club capture the Calder Cup and was named Playoff MVP, which only added to the sense that Toronto has a real goaltending prospect on its hands. His brief NHL look was much less polished, but the larger picture is still one of a young goalie with talent and room to grow.
That is where the next decision gets interesting for Toronto. Akhtyamov is viewed as a promising netminder, but he is also blocked by the current NHL tandem of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz, leaving the Leafs to weigh development against roster needs. How they choose to handle him could say plenty about both their long-term goalie planning and how quickly they think he can help at the top level. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs May Have A Cheap Top Six Fix After All
Vladimir Tarasenko is still sitting out there as an unsigned free agent in early August, which is enough to keep his name in the conversation for a Maple Leafs club that could use another scoring threat in the top six. Toronto has been looking for ways to add offense without making a major splash, and Tarasenkos track record makes him an obvious fit on paper as a player who could add depth alongside Auston Matthews if the price and term make sense.
The catch is the same one that has followed this possibility all summer: the Leafs would need to make the finances work, and Tarasenko would likely have to meet them partway on salary or length of contract. His recent performance has been uneven, so this is not a clean, no-brainer add, but it is exactly the kind of lower-cost swing that can matter if Toronto wants to squeeze more scoring out of its roster without changing the whole shape of the lineup. [Read more 🡒]