As the Toronto Maple Leafs gear up for the summer, their top priority is clear: securing a solid second-line center. John Tavares, while still valuable, is better suited for a third-line role where he can dominate against less formidable competition. His current $4.38M AAV deal makes this transition feasible.
Initially, the free agent market seemed promising with names like Connor McDavid, Nick Schmaltz, and Jack Eichel. However, most have re-signed with their teams, leaving Alex Tuch and Charlie Coyle as the standout options. Coyle, in particular, is having an impressive season in Columbus, making him a prime target for the Leafs to bolster their top-six.
Why is Coyle the right fit?
While not the most glamorous name, Coyle fits the Maple Leafs' needs perfectly if Tavares shifts to the third line. In Columbus, Coyle starts 23% of his shifts in the defensive zone and only 13% in the offensive zone, with 47% starting on the fly, according to MoneyPuck. Despite this defensive focus, he’s managed 55 points in 71 games, showcasing his ability to contribute offensively.
Even with a defensive workload, Columbus sees a positive goal differential with Coyle on the ice. His expected goals exceed his actual tally-22 versus 17-indicating untapped potential. At 34, he’s still performing at a high level.
Fans will remember Coyle from his days with the Boston Bruins. Known for his reliability and defensive acumen, he consistently delivers 45-60 points per season. This is precisely what the Leafs have been lacking.
Unlike players like Nic Roy or Scott Laughton, who excel defensively but struggle to score, Coyle is a proven second-line center that Toronto should pursue.
What about the contract?
Coyle’s financial impact should be manageable. His previous six-year deal had a $5.25M AAV.
While he’s due for a raise, it’s unlikely to be substantial. Comparable players earn similar figures, and unless a bidding war ensues, the Leafs have the cap flexibility to accommodate him.
Joel Eriksson Ek, a player similar to Coyle, is on a $5.25M AAV deal, while Ryan McLeod recently signed a four-year, $5M AAV contract. Coyle’s new deal might range from $6.5M to $7M. With over $20M in cap space available this summer, the Leafs can afford him, provided they’re committed to the acquisition and Coyle is interested in joining Toronto.
The missing piece for the Leafs
Toronto aims to remain competitive next season. Achieving this requires a revamped second line led by a strong two-way center. Charlie Coyle fits this role perfectly.
With a center lineup featuring Auston Matthews, Coyle, and Tavares, the Leafs would transform their depth into a formidable strength. However, Coyle is essential to this equation. Relying on Tavares as the second-line center isn’t a viable option moving forward.
While the free agent pool is limited, Coyle represents the best opportunity for the Leafs to regain their competitive edge. If playoff success is the goal, Coyle is the player to make it happen.