The Toronto Maple Leafs pulled off a shootout win over the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night, but don’t let that fool you-there’s a bigger picture in play here, and it might just involve embracing the tank. Yes, that word fans don’t like to hear unless it’s attached to a top-tier draft pick. But in Toronto’s case, there’s a very real, very strategic reason to keep an eye on the standings-and, maybe, not mind if the team slips a bit further down.
Let’s break it down.
Last season, the Leafs made a move for Brandon Carlo, sending their 2026 first-round pick to the Boston Bruins. At the time, it looked like a calculated push for help on the blue line.
But here’s the twist: that pick is top-five protected. Meaning, if the Leafs finish low enough in the standings to land a top-five selection in the 2026 NHL Draft, they keep the pick.
That’s a huge deal.
If the Leafs do end up keeping their 2026 first-rounder, it rolls the obligation forward. The pick owed to Boston would then shift to 2027.
But it gets even more layered. Because of the Scott Laughton trade, if the 2026 pick stays in Toronto, the 2027 pick would instead go to the Philadelphia Flyers.
That means Boston wouldn’t get a first-rounder from Toronto until 2028-and that pick would be unprotected.
So, from the Leafs’ perspective, dropping into the top five in this year’s draft would be a double win: they’d keep their pick in what’s expected to be one of the deepest draft classes in recent memory, and they’d push Boston’s return even further down the road.
Right now, according to Tankathon, the Leafs would be slotted to pick ninth if the draft were held today. In that scenario, the pick would go to Boston.
But-and this is where things get interesting-that spot carries a 5.1% chance of winning the draft lottery. We’ve seen it happen before.
Just last year, the New York Islanders jumped from 10th to 1st. So the Leafs don’t need to bottom out entirely.
They just need to get into a range where the ping-pong balls might bounce their way.
Even if they don’t land first overall, the top five is the magic number. That’s the threshold where they keep the pick. And in a draft class loaded with high-end talent, that could mean landing a future franchise defenseman or a top-line forward-exactly the kind of piece that could reshape the Leafs’ core for years to come.
All of this adds a layer of intrigue to the upcoming trade deadline. If the Leafs decide to sell, and all signs point to that being a real possibility, they’ll be looking to stockpile picks.
Right now, they’ve only got three selections in the later rounds. That’s not going to cut it for a team that might be heading into a mini reset.
Flipping expiring contracts or veteran depth for earlier-round picks could give Toronto a much-needed infusion of draft capital-and set them up for a strong rebound.
So while wins like Saturday night’s are nice in the moment, Leafs fans shouldn’t be too discouraged if the team starts to slide. There’s a long game at play here. And if it ends with a top-five pick in a stacked draft, Toronto might just come out of this tough season with a brighter future than anyone expected.