The Maple Leafs’ latest loss exposed a familiar problem, but the name attached to it may not be the one fans expected.
Toronto fell again on Saturday night, this time to the Montreal Canadiens. After the Habs opened up a quick 2-0 lead, the Maple Leafs never really settled in, and even a late third-period push wasn’t enough to turn the night around.
The game had all the usual warning signs: turnovers, shaky defensive reads and stretches where Toronto simply didn’t look urgent enough. Gavin McKenna drew his share of blame for the mistakes, while Sergei Bobrovsky is still dealing with questions as the goalie debate continues to build.
But the bigger issue, at least from a defensive standpoint, is Jake McCabe.
That’s the uncomfortable part for Toronto. McCabe is supposed to be one of the team’s most trusted defenders, the guy you lean on when things get messy.
Instead, he has been one of the worst performers on the blue line. And while Chris Tanev is the more complete defender, he also didn’t land his big extension with the Maple Leafs for nothing after a strong couple of seasons.
McCabe’s production and underlying numbers have both taken a sharp hit this year, and the drop-off is obvious whether you’re watching the games or looking at the metrics. His xGF is being outpaced by his xGA by nearly four goals.
The team has under a 40% chance of scoring with him on the ice. His possession numbers have also fallen off.
There is one bright spot in the numbers: his shorthanded work has been strong compared to his 5v5 play. That said, Toronto’s penalty kill has been so effective this season that it may be helping cover for some of that.
What makes this so damaging for the Maple Leafs is that they can’t keep relying on McCabe to be the answer on the back end if he’s not defending at the level they need. He’s been beaten at the front of the net, he’s struggled to clear the puck cleanly, and he hasn’t shown the same edge that once made him so effective.
That’s where the concern starts to widen. The Brad Treliving era may have left Toronto with a long-term problem, because the club is now carrying Tanev’s expensive contract and health questions while also dealing with a regressing McCabe on a long-term deal. And with no clear way to know whether this is just a rough stretch or something more permanent, the uncertainty is only getting worse.
If McCabe keeps sliding, finding a trade partner won’t be easy. His contract and term make the situation even tougher. And if he doesn’t straighten things out, the Maple Leafs are going to feel it in two places: the standings and the wallet.
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For a lineup already stretched thin by injuries, the margin for error was gone quickly, and the game only got harder as the night unfolded. The Leafs were missing several key pieces and could not generate the kind of push needed to keep pace with a Devils team that looked in control from the start, leaving Toronto with another reminder of how fragile things can get when the roster is depleted. [Read more 🡒]
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Easton Cowan is the name that will matter most in any serious negotiation, even if the case for keeping him is strong. Beyond him, Toronto can point to the first-round pick it owns from Colorado and a pair of prospects in Ben Danford and Tinus Luc Koblar, giving the club some flexibility if the right premium target suddenly becomes available. [Read more 🡒]