The NHL may be headed for a 34-team future, and if that happens, the Maple Leafs will have a familiar problem on their hands: twice the expansion-draft headache.
On 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman said commissioner Gary Bettman’s succession plan points toward getting the league to 34 teams before he steps away. Friedman identified Houston and Atlanta as the most likely landing spots, with Austin mentioned as a possible wild card.
The plan would be supported by expansion fees and a U.S. TV deal involving ESPN and TNT.
For Toronto, the math gets messy fast. Two new franchises would mean two more expansion drafts, forcing the Leafs to expose players on separate occasions and putting general manager John Chayka in a tricky spot.
The NHL has not announced what any new expansion draft rules would look like, so the only guide right now is the model used for the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken. Under those rules, the obvious names stay safe. Auston Matthews and William Nylander would be in that category, and players under contract such as Darren Raddysh and Morgan Rielly would also be protected.
The real wrinkle is timing. In the Vegas and Seattle setups, first- and second-year professionals were exempt, which means younger Leafs such as McKenna could potentially dodge the protection-list problem depending on when the draft happens.
Even so, Toronto already has more players worth protecting than available slots. Matthew Knies, Nylander, and Anthony Stolarz are among the players whose contracts run deep enough into the expansion window to make the list complicated.
So the Leafs are probably not staring at a superstar loss. The danger is elsewhere.
The players most at risk are the useful depth pieces - the kind of NHL-ready options expansion teams love to scoop up. Veterans such as Paul, Sissons, Blueger, Duhaime and Roslovic fit that profile if they’re still under contract and eligible when the draft arrives.
They can step into lineups right away, and they do it without costing much. That’s exactly the type of value expansion clubs chase.
It’s also the type of player Chayka just spent the summer trying to rebuild on Toronto’s roster.
That’s what makes the possibility of two expansion drafts so uncomfortable for the Leafs. Losing fringe prospects would be one thing.
Losing proven depth would be another. The Golden Knights showed how dangerous that can be when they built a contender quickly by targeting players who could actually play.
Toronto won’t be sweating over Matthews or Nylander. It will be sweating over the pieces around them.
In Other News...
Former Oilers Forward Gets A Fresh Chance As Leafs Role Opens Up
The Maple Leafs forward picture keeps shifting, and the latest move only sharpens the competition. Jack Roslovics new two-year deal in Toronto has already created the sense that he could be asked to do more than some expected when he arrived, while the rest of the roster battle remains very much alive as camp approaches. For a team trying to sort out its depth and find the right mix up front, every opening matters.
Alex Nylander is on the other side of that equation, with reports tying him to a professional tryout at Calgary Flames camp after a productive season with the Toronto Marlies. It is a reminder of how thin the line can be for players chasing NHL jobs, especially when one roster gets crowded and another spot suddenly looks available. For Toronto, the competition around the bottom of the forward group is still a story worth watching. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Keep Emerging In One Intriguing Big-Season Addition Scenario
Elliotte Friedmans latest look at the leagues future had a little something for everyone, but for Maple Leafs fans, the most intriguing thread was the one that put Erik Karlsson back into the conversation. Any talk of a veteran right-shot defenseman with elite puck-moving ability is going to catch attention in Toronto, especially with the club always searching for ways to sharpen its blue line and keep pace in the East. The broader backdrop matters, too, with Friedman floating the idea of NHL expansion in markets like Atlanta and Texas before the next U.S. TV deal expires, a reminder that the leagues next few years could bring more change than most offseasons do.
There is also the inevitable business-side chatter around the top of the league office, with Friedman suggesting Gary Bettman could eventually shift into an advisory role while Bill Daly steps in. But for the Leafs, the immediate draw is still the possibility of Karlsson landing in Toronto if the right conditions line up, a scenario that keeps resurfacing because it would reshape how the team thinks about its roster construction. Elsewhere on the hockey broadcast and transaction front, there were updates involving Ron Macleans possible return to Rogers Saturday night coverage, plus emergency backup goalie news and professional tryout agreements for Cal Petersen and Alex Nylander, a reminder that the NHL calendar never stays quiet for long. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Are Watching A Familiar Experiment Slip To Another Team
Alex Nylander is headed for another chance to crack an NHL roster, with reports saying he is expected to sign a professional tryout with the Calgary Flames. For Toronto fans, it is a familiar kind of development: a player who made an impression with the Marlies last season, put together a strong year in the AHL, and still never turned that into a permanent spot with the Maple Leafs.
Now the Flames will get the look Toronto never fully granted him at the top level. Nylander will be evaluated through training camp and the preseason as Calgary tries to determine whether his game fits its NHL mix, leaving the Leafs to watch a once-familiar internal test play out somewhere else, with a different staff deciding whether there is finally a path forward. [Read more 🡒]