The numbers point one way, even if the early results have tried to send the other message: Sergei Bobrovsky looks like Toronto’s best option in goal right now.
The 38-year-old newcomer has opened with just one win in four starts, and his surface stats aren’t exactly sparkling. He’s sitting on a 2.97 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage. But the deeper view paints a much stronger picture.
Bobrovsky’s goals saved above expected is up to 4.7, which ranks seventh in the NHL this season. He has also handled high-danger chances well, posting a .841 save percentage in those situations, good for the 71st percentile. On top of that, he has 37 high-danger saves, a number that lands in the 93rd percentile and suggests the kind of performance that can turn around quickly in the win-loss column.
Anthony Stolarz has had the opposite kind of start. Toronto’s starter over the last two seasons has been getting most of the opportunities, but he has functioned more like a backup early on this year. The New Jersey native is 2-1 in three starts, yet his numbers have lagged behind Bobrovsky’s, with a 3.32 goals-against average and a .875 save percentage.
The deeper metrics back that up too. Stolarz is below league average in most underlying categories, and the most concerning number is his goals saved above expected.
That mark was a major strength in 2024-25, when his 25.8 ranked among the league’s best. It dropped to -6.7 last season as Toronto slipped as a team, and through three starts this year it is already at -1.0.
He does have one notable bright spot: a .900 save percentage against mid-danger chances, which puts him in the 59th percentile. Beyond that, though, the trend line has not been encouraging.
With the gap between the two goaltenders looking much wider in the numbers than it does in the standings, Toronto should lean more heavily on its more experienced option. Thursday’s game against the Buffalo Sabres feels like the obvious place to do it.
Bobrovsky has been strong in his career against Buffalo, going 17-9-2 with a 2.71 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage in 29 starts. Based on everything so far, he looks like the clear choice for Toronto on Thursday night and beyond.
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