Gavin McKenna’s path to going first overall in the 2026 draft did not follow a clean line. It zigged, it zagged, and at one point it looked like the race for No. 1 might actually open back up.
That’s what makes Toronto winning the draft lottery such a strange and fascinating turn. The Maple Leafs, coming off their worst season in a decade, now sit in position to make the pick that once felt inevitable: McKenna.
Not long ago, there wasn’t much debate at all. By the end of the 2024-25 junior season, McKenna had put together a monster year with the Medicine Hat Tigers.
At 17, in his third season with the club, he piled up 129 points in 56 regular-season games. Then he took it up another notch in the playoffs, finishing with 38 points in 16 games and helping the Tigers win the WHL championship.
At that stage, McKenna looked less like a prospect and more like a formality. The discussion wasn’t really about whether he’d go first. It was about which NHL team would be lucky enough to land him.
Then he made a move that changed everything. Instead of going back for another year of junior hockey, McKenna headed to Penn State to play college hockey.
For a player fresh off that kind of season, it was an unusual choice. It also brought a different kind of scrutiny.
Against older, bigger, more physically mature competition, the questions started piling up. People looked harder at his defensive play.
His willingness to engage physically came under the microscope. Things that had barely mattered while he was torching the WHL suddenly became part of the conversation.
And while McKenna was adjusting, other names started creeping into the mix. Ivar Stenberg drew plenty of attention.
Chase Reid began looking like a potential top defenseman. Caleb Malhotra also started turning heads.
For a stretch, the 2026 draft looked far less settled than it had before.
Then McKenna did what top prospects are supposed to do when the noise starts getting louder: he pushed back with his play. He scored 14 points in seven games at the World Junior Championship, then finished the second half of the season strongly at Penn State. Bit by bit, the No. 1 conversation swung back his way.
Toronto’s lottery win added a fresh layer to the story. The Maple Leafs now have the top pick in a draft that features the same player who, not long ago, looked like the clear front-runner. McKenna even acknowledged the oddity of it, saying it was almost funny that a team expected to be in the playoff hunt next season ended up winning the lottery, and said he’d be fortunate to land in Toronto.
The pick itself still comes with a real debate. Some analysts have pointed to the safer route: a steady, two-way defenseman who could become part of the team’s foundation. Others have argued Toronto should go for the higher-end swing and take McKenna, who has already shown he can completely change the temperature of a game.
There’s logic on both sides, especially for a team with holes to fill on defence. But Toronto is also a franchise that has spent years waiting for something to break its way.
McKenna has already lived through the hype, the doubts, the backlash and the bounce-back. His road to No. 1 has been anything but straight.
Now the Maple Leafs have decided he’s the one. The question is whether McKenna can be the player who makes this turn in the story feel a lot bigger than a lottery win.
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Maple Leafs May Regret Letting A Defense Prospect Help Tampa Bay
Nathan Mayes is getting another look in a new uniform, and it is the kind of move that can make a team like the Maple Leafs wonder if it gave up on a defense prospect a little too soon. Drafted by Toronto, Mayes has landed on Tampa Bays Prospect Showcase roster, putting him in front of the Lightnings staff without Tampa having to spend a draft asset to get a closer evaluation.
Toronto did not offer Mayes an entry-level contract, which opened the door for Tampa Bay to take a longer look at what he might become after his development in the WHL. The Lightning are now sorting out whether there is a path for him to help at the AHL or NHL level, and for the Leafs, it is another reminder that a prospects next step can sometimes happen somewhere else. [Read more 🡒]
Fraser Minten Just Made The Leafs Trade Debate Even Worse
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The Bruins have signed Minten to a seven-year extension beginning in the 2027-28 season, a deal worth $50.4 million with a $7.2 million cap hit. For Toronto, the timing only sharpens the old question about whether the organization moved on too soon from a player who looks like a core piece in Boston, and it gives Leafs fans another reason to revisit a trade that already felt like it carried plenty of risk. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Forward Depth Issue Could Open Door For An Unexpected Prospect
The Maple Leafs have spent plenty of time sorting out their forward depth, and that has started to create some real opportunity for a prospect who was not necessarily supposed to be part of the conversation this early. Miroslav Holinka has quietly pushed his way into the picture by showing strong development in both junior and professional settings, the kind of steady progress that can matter when a team starts looking for help beyond the usual names.
For Toronto, the appeal is obvious: a young player who has earned notice can become more than just an organizational depth piece if the roster keeps leaving openings. Holinka is now viewed as a legitimate call-up candidate, and with the Leafs still managing the shape of their bottom-six options, his timing could end up being important. The next step is whether that promise translates into a real chance when the need finally comes. [Read more 🡒]