The Maple Leafs haven’t exactly had the start they wanted, but the first three games have still revealed a clear shape to this team. Toronto has shown more than a few encouraging signs with all the new faces in the mix. What hasn’t shown up enough is the payoff on the scoreboard.
That leaves the Leafs heading into the finale of their four-game season-opening homestand against the Nashville Predators with a pretty simple task: clean up the habits that are costing them, keep leaning into the parts of the game that are already working, and find a way to turn decent stretches into actual points.
The easiest place to start is with the penalties. Toronto keeps handing opponents chances to swing momentum, and it has already burned them.
Nick Paul took an unnecessary penalty while the Leafs were up 1-0 in the opener against the Montreal Canadiens, and Josh Anderson quickly buried the tying goal. Montreal then pushed ahead 3-1 on its way to the win.
The same issue popped up again against the Ottawa Senators. With the game tied 2-2, Kirill Marchenko took an offensive-zone high-sticking penalty on Ottawa’s Tim Stutzle just past the halfway point of the third period.
Stephen Holliday scored the winner one second after Marchenko got out of the box. Then, almost immediately after the faceoff, Jack Roslovic tripped Michael Amadio, sending Toronto right back to the penalty kill.
From there, the Leafs had little left in the tank, and Ottawa controlled the third period 16-5 in shots.
Another area that needs a reset is whatever is happening in the second intermission. Jim Hiller may want to rethink that talk between periods, because Toronto has been outscored 3-1 in third periods through three games.
The Leafs haven’t scored a third-period goal in their last two outings. Their only third-period goal so far came from William Nylander with just under five minutes left against Montreal.
There are still pieces of the offense that look promising, though, and Toronto needs to squeeze more out of them at the same time. The top three lines have all scored through the first three games, but not in the same night.
Nylander scored both Leafs goals in the loss to Montreal. The third line of Paul, Easton Cowan, and Colton Sissons drove the 2-1 win over the New York Islanders.
Matthews and Marchenko each scored against Ottawa before the Leafs slipped away late. The next step is getting multiple lines going together, not one at a time.
Faceoffs are another swing point. Toronto has been pushed around in the circle in two of three games, which is a rough turn for a team that used to lean on that area as a strength.
Montreal owned a 60.4% to 39.6% edge, and Ottawa won 56.9% of the draws in its victory over the Leafs. Toronto flipped that script in its win over New York, taking 60% of the faceoffs.
Starting with the puck instead of chasing it changes everything.
If there’s one part of the game Toronto should not mess with, it’s the penalty kill. The revamped bottom-six group has done its job and then some.
Paul, Sissons, Cowan, Brandon Duhaime, and Teddy Blueger are a perfect 10-for-10 while killing penalties, and Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe have been major contributors as well. That’s a box the Leafs don’t need to reinvent.
The other encouraging development is how much tighter the team has looked defensively. Toronto spent long stretches in Craig Berube’s final season getting pinned in its own end and buried in shot volume.
That hasn’t been the story so far this year. The Leafs haven’t allowed 30 shots in a game yet, and they’ve actually outshot their opponents 83-80 through three games.
They’ve also hit plenty of posts and crossbars, which suggests the bounces may start to come around.
There are still some good signs worth watching beyond the team-wide structure. The combination of Matthews and Marchenko looks ready to pop.
Darren Raddysh’s more aggressive approach, backed by nine shot attempts last game, has stood out. Easton Cowan keeps building momentum.
And the second line of Nylander, John Tavares, and Gavin McKenna has plenty of room to climb.
Toronto has done enough to suggest the results should come if the details sharpen up. The positives are there. The Leafs just need to stop handing away momentum and start stacking those good stretches into wins, beginning against Nashville.
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