Erik Karlsson’s future in Pittsburgh is starting to look like a question of timing as much as anything else.
Josh Yohe of The Athletic addressed the defenseman’s situation in a recent mailbag, and his read is pretty clear: Karlsson is unlikely to be back with the Penguins once his contract expires next season. The real issue is whether Pittsburgh moves him before then or simply lets the season play out and watches him leave in free agency.
According to Yohe, the answer depends heavily on how competitive the Penguins are next winter.
“If they aren’t having a very good season come January or February, Karlsson should almost certainly be traded, especially if he’s performing at a level remotely close to last season’s. This is a no-brainer.” He then adds, “But what if the Penguins exceed expectations again next season?”
Yohe’s view is that if Pittsburgh is playing well, the club could keep Karlsson through the year and then move on without giving him a new contract, “despite his brilliance.” At 37, he notes, Karlsson won’t come cheap, and he doesn’t see a strong reason for the Penguins to commit more money to him.
“So, if they’re good, I assume they’ll keep him and let him walk next summer. If the postseason looks unlikely, I believe the organization will trade him.”
If a trade does become realistic, Toronto and Ottawa have both been mentioned as possible landing spots. Ottawa’s interest would carry the obvious reunion angle, and Yohe pointed to the kind of emotional pull that comes with a player returning for one last run. Toronto, meanwhile, would be looking at Karlsson as someone they believe can still give them another productive season or two.
What Pittsburgh could get back for him is still unclear. If Karlsson turns in a season like the one he had in 2025-26, the rental market would be strong enough to make a deal worth serious consideration. If he doesn’t, the better move may be to let him keep playing for the Penguins and then separate after the season.
One major complication remains: Karlsson has a full no-move clause, so nothing happens unless he agrees to it.
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