The Maple Leafs’ first real test of the season is right around the corner, and it starts with a quick shift from home ice to the long road.
Toronto is at home tomorrow for its first TSN game, then heads straight to Vegas for the first late start of the season - 10 p.m. After that, it’s on to Denver for Hockey Night Not in Canada. This week is going to show whether all that early optimism can hold up once the schedule gets meaner.
That matters because the Leafs already took one at home last Saturday, a game they “deserved” to win until the Senators pushed hard in the third period. Ottawa, which was the third best five-on-five team by xG% last year, can drive play. Toronto, meanwhile, is still sorting itself out in that area.
Kirill Marchenko only joined the Maple Leafs a day before the regular season started, so he’s had limited practice time with Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic. On Sunday, Toronto had an optional skate, and the trio was out there putting in the work.
The loss to Ottawa also wasn’t just about bad bounces. Puck luck had a hand in it, but it wasn’t the whole story, and the Leafs have to live with that after dropping a second one-goal game in their opening week.
Still, the early numbers have been noisy enough that it’s hard to draw clean conclusions. Even-strength shooting rates tell part of the story:
Sissons: 24
Marchenko: 23
Nylander: 21
Raddysh: 16
Roslovic: 13
Matthews: 12
Groulx: 12
Those top three aren’t going to stay that high, and Raddysh isn’t going to stay there either. Matthews won’t stay that low.
Right now, though, he’s shooting the least on his line, at about 60% of his prior career average. If he’s going to score, he needs to shoot.
That doesn’t mean the other guys on the line are taking the puck away from him. The more likely explanation is simpler: the group hasn’t fully built out its offensive concepts yet.
The third line, though, has been really cooking so far - something that hasn’t been said since it had Mitch Marner on it.
Beyond that, there isn’t much more to read into just yet. Ten games in, 20 games in, 84 games in - nobody knows where this team will land.
There was plenty of talk when the Leafs changed about four guys and people worried there was too much turnover. Well, this is a lot of change.
The message now is to relax and let it breathe.
There were things to like in the last game, too. Easton Cowan has been fun to watch, and Morgan Rielly has quietly been okay.
It’s been a while since he looked comfortable. And so far, nobody looks like they’re grinding through an injury they ought to be rehabbing instead.
Now the real grind starts.
In Other News...
Oilers Trade Interest In Young Center Suddenly Gets More Complicated
Gavin McKennas early NHL stretch finally turned into a memorable night in Toronto, where the young forward notched his first goal and assist in the same game Tuesday. It was the kind of small but meaningful milestone that can give a newcomer some needed confidence, and it came at a time when the Maple Leafs are still sorting out what they have in their younger pieces.
Elsewhere in the league, Michael Bunting landed with the Flyers on a one-year, $1.2 million deal after staying unsigned into the season, a move Philadelphia hopes will help its offense right away. And for the Oilers, trade talk around a young center from an Eastern Conference team has only gotten murkier, with Matt Poitras still floating as a possible fit but no agreement in sight yet. [Read more 🡒]
Auston Matthews Just Gave Leafs Fans A Reason To Believe Again
Auston Matthews gave the Maple Leafs exactly the kind of night they have been waiting for, driving Toronto to a comeback victory over the Nashville Predators with a performance that felt like a reminder of what he can still mean to this team. He was all over the score sheet, helping fuel the rally and giving the Leafs a lift at a time when any sign of rhythm from their captain is going to draw attention.
Matthews has opened the season with five points in four games, a pace that suggests he is settling in fast after a stretch where his level of play was under the microscope. The bigger picture for Toronto is simple: if this version of Matthews is here to stay, the Leafs suddenly have a much better reason to believe their top player is moving back toward the form that once made him one of the leagues most dominant forces. [Read more 🡒]
Gavin McKennas Breakthrough Came After One Unusual Leafs Twist
Gavin McKennas first few days with the Maple Leafs were already drawing attention, but the real breakthrough arrived in a comeback win that gave the rookie his first NHL goal and his first career point. It came in his fourth game, a milestone moment that fit the kind of early-season spark Toronto has been looking for as it tries to keep building momentum.
What made the day stand out even before the puck dropped was McKenna showing up for the optional morning skate, a small detail that did not go unnoticed by fans or media around the team. Auston Matthews even suggested McKenna could be in line for more after getting that first one, and for a player still settling into his NHL footing, that kind of confidence can matter as much as the box score. [Read more 🡒]