If the Maple Leafs really want Dylan Larkin, the obstacle isn’t just his contract. It’s the kind of return Detroit would demand - and that’s where Toronto runs into a problem.
Larkin is the sort of player plenty of teams would line up for. The clubs getting the most buzz are Minnesota, Florida, Vegas, and Dallas, but the appeal is obvious enough that just about everyone around the league would have interest. He’s an elite two-way centre who has put together strong career numbers, even if his postseason résumé remains thin.
That limited playoff exposure is part of what makes the situation interesting. Larkin is looking for a new home that can give him more regular trips into the postseason, and whoever lands him won’t be getting a bargain. They’ll be paying a significant amount for the player himself, and then paying again in assets to bring him in.
According to Ansar Khan on Oilers Now, Detroit is not in the mood to wait around for a slow rebuild. As he put it: "The Wings aren't interested right now...in prospects and draft picks and just extending this rebuild; they're desperate to make the playoffs next season; they need NHL ready players for that."
That kind of ask puts Toronto in a tough spot. If the Red Wings are targeting NHL-ready talent, the Leafs’ most appealing pieces are the exact ones they’d rather keep. Names like Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan would likely be the kind of players Detroit wants to talk about.
And that’s where the idea starts to get messy for Toronto. Even if the Leafs were willing to include a player like Knies, that doesn’t automatically make Larkin the right answer. Knies may not bring elite top-six numbers, but he still matters a lot to what Toronto is trying to build.
There’s also the fit to consider. The Leafs already don’t have much of a physical edge in the top six, and Larkin’s defensive value would help, but Toronto already spent the summer adding more defensive support up front. It’s not as if the team is scrambling to replace John Tavares as the 2C right now.
Then there’s the bigger gamble: Larkin’s playoff sample is still small, his cap hit is $8.7M for the next five years, and the move could even complicate Auston Matthews’ next contract if the cap keeps rising the way it has.
So yes, Larkin would make Toronto better down the middle. No question.
But Detroit’s preferred return appears to target the very players the Leafs are trying hardest to protect. Toronto might be able to handle the money.
The real issue is whether it can afford the cost in talent.
On paper, it looks easy. In reality, it looks like a pipe dream.
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A reset of that size tends to force hard choices, especially when a team starts weighing the value of newer talent against familiar names who have been around longer. Max Domi, Anthony Stolarz and Morgan Rielly have all surfaced in speculation about who could be moved or be gone by the end of the year, but nothing has happened yet, leaving the Leafs in that uncomfortable space where a future-facing decision is looming without the first real move to go with it. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Could Face One Tough Decision With Reilly Smith
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The catch is roster math. Toronto already has a full contract roster, so any move from a PTO to a signed deal would force the club to clear space first. That makes Smith an interesting possibility for the Leafs, but also a potentially tricky one, because a simple evaluation could quickly turn into a decision with ripple effects elsewhere on the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Just Closed Off One Offseason Option Fans Wanted
The Maple Leafs have reached a point in the offseason where even the margestane room is gone, at least on paper. Toronto now sits at 50 signed professional contracts, the NHL limit, and as of Sept. 7 it was the only team in the league in that position. The recent signing of Brendan Brisson helped get the roster to that mark, giving the club a full allotment before training camp decisions really start to sharpen.
For fans hoping the Leafs might still bring in another veteran look or a professional tryout, the path has gotten a lot narrower. NHL rules mean any added contract would have to be paired with another move, whether that comes through a trade or some other roster shuffle, so the teams flexibility is tied to what it can create elsewhere. Trades are still in play, but the easy option of simply adding another body has effectively been shut off for now. [Read more 🡒]