Multiple sources are saying the Leafs are bringing defender Nick Blankenburg to camp on a PTO, and the fit is pretty easy to understand. Toronto needs bodies, especially with both preseason gamedays coming as split squads, and Blankenburg gives them another option on the blue line while Chris Tanev remains medically un-cleared for now, though that may simply be because medicals are later this week.
The case for Blankenburg starts with the numbers, but it doesn’t stop there. He’s been treated like an analytics gem for a while, yet the underlying picture is a lot less exciting when you dig in. He doesn’t shoot much, his individual expected goals stay low because the volume is so low, and that has held true no matter where he’s played.
The odd part is that his strongest-looking stretch was tied more to Nashville than Colorado, even though his brief scoring burst with the Avs is what got attention. Last season, he scored two goals in just 12 games in Colorado, but the stats that made him look useful were mostly built on his earlier work in Nashville. In Denver, his value fell off sharply.
That’s why the size issue matters here. Blankenburg is 28, listed at 5-foot-9 and 177 pounds, and that’s a real hurdle for a defender.
Being undersized by NHL standards isn’t automatically disqualifying, but it means everything else has to pop. In his case, there just isn’t enough there to make the height disappear.
He’s not a disaster. He can fill a third-pair role without causing trouble, and his defence is fine, if unremarkable.
But the idea that he’s some hidden offensive player who hasn’t been properly unleashed doesn’t really hold up for me. He’s had plenty of chances.
The offensive production shows up in flashes, then vanishes in every other season.
There’s also the strange split between his Nashville and Colorado usage. In Denver, he was deployed heavily away from top lines.
Maybe it was the partner he had in Nashville, usually Nick Hague. Maybe it was how the two teams played.
Either way, the contrast is real, and it’s part of why his profile is hard to pin down.
If Toronto is simply looking for insurance, then a PTO makes sense. That’s especially true with camp needing more than 12 defenders. But if the Leafs are hoping they’ve found a sneaky steal who has been overlooked because he’s short, I’m not buying it.
The first preseason games are set for Saturday, with the Leafs expected to hold their first practice on Thursday. Media availability and medicals are slated for the day before.
The rookies were already in Gatineau, where Gavin McKenna was present but did not play. The Sun reported that the Leafs can only use McKenna in two preseason games because of the split-squad setup, so they held him out here a week early.
That explanation didn’t really land for me. It felt more like they didn’t want a Minten-type situation where someone gets hurt.
On the ice, Luke Haymes stood out in the first game, along with the other top AHL types such as Borya Valis and Miroslav Holinka. Some of the actual prospects worked hard, but it was a tough setting to create much of anything.
Harry Nansi flashed, as did Alexander Bilecki. It was also the first look at Timofei Obvintsev, who played the whole game and had one very bad moment, but otherwise looked like a pro goalie - which, of course, he already is.
Tinus Luc Koblar tried to drive offence, though not quite with the spark he can bring, and Ben Danford had one of those uneven outings with good stretches and obvious rust.
Steve Sullivan’s first game as head coach had some odd line combinations at the start, including Nansi at 4C and Tyler Hopkins on the wing. That didn’t last.
Before the game was over, Nansi had moved up to Haymes’ wing and Hopkins had dropped to 3C, where he belongs. If Hopkins isn’t playing center, he doesn’t offer much, which makes him one of the rare players who isn’t better on the wing.
That change says something about coaching, too. An experienced coach doesn’t toss out ideas just to toss them out. The good ones try the things that actually make sense.
Game two opened cleaner, with Nansi on the wing of the top line and Hopkins at 3C from the start. It was the better of the two games, and TLK looked a little more like the player he’s expected to be this season. That held until the third period, when the Leafs guys basically spent time hanging out with Patriks Plumins.
The clearest takeaway from the weekend may have been the defence. At least on the Marlies side, the blue line looked like it was set to activate by default, with a lot of defenders jumping into the offensive cycle. The first two goals from Sunday showed it in two different ways: one was the classic defender stepping in and shooting, and the other was a more modern defender playing wing and finishing the play.
If Toronto ends up signing someone from this group to an ELC, though, it should be Nansi.
As for the contract chatter elsewhere, the AAV on Chris Kreider’s deal is being talked about in a way that doesn’t really tell the full story. The deal is listed at $2.15 million AAV, with bonuses that can add up to $3 million more.
The full structure is a 1-year deal with an $850,000 salary, a $1.3 million signing bonus, and $3.25 million in performance bonuses: $2 million for 10 games played, $250,000 each at 10, 20 and 30 goals, and $500,000 at 40 goals scored. The cap hit is $2.15 million, the AAV is $5.4 million, and it includes a no-move clause.
The point is that the low AAV can be misleading. Kreider is basically set to get the $2 million bonus by default, and he’ll likely hit the first goals bonus too, maybe all of them except the biggest one. He isn’t losing money compared with what he would have made on the old deal, and Montréal won’t have to count all of that cap hit this year because the bonuses can roll over, even though it all gets accounted for eventually.
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Back with Owen Sound, Nansi has been handling a first-line role and looks like a player whose game is moving in the right direction. His skating stood out as improved from last year, and after putting up 56 points in 67 games last season, he is starting to look like someone with a bit more upside than a typical camp body. [Read more 🡒]