Gavin McKenna enters the season with the kind of buzz that usually follows a future star, but The Hockey News’ projection shows how thin the line can be between a strong rookie year and a Calder Trophy win.
In the magazine’s latest issue, McKenna was pegged for 15 goals and 37 assists, good for 52 points in his first season. That would put the 2026 first overall pick ahead of fellow rookies Ivar Stenberg, Cole Hutson, Konsta Helenius and James Hagens in the points race, but it still might not be enough to make him the clear favorite for rookie of the year.
That’s because history has not always demanded a monster total to win the Calder. Matty Beniers took the trophy with 57 points, while Gabriel Landeskog won it with 52, the same number McKenna is projected to reach. So while 52 points would be a very solid rookie output for an 18-year-old making the jump to pro hockey, it doesn’t automatically put him over the top.
The bigger issue is how the rest of the class shakes out. If players like Ivar Stenberg, Viggo Bjorck and Alberts Smits fall well behind, McKenna could still end up with the best numbers. But if the field is tight, 52 points may not be enough to create real separation.
The Hockey News also makes clear that point totals aren’t the only thing that matters. McKenna’s impact on the Maple Leafs and whether he helps make them competitive again will factor into the picture as well. Still, the old pattern remains: he would likely need to outplay expectations, not just meet them, to lock down the 2026-27 rookie of the year award.
Toronto’s lineup choices could end up shaping that outcome. If McKenna spends the year in a sheltered middle-six role with limited first-unit power-play time, he may stay right around that 52-point mark. But if he’s regularly skating with Matthews and getting premium special-teams minutes, his production could climb well past it.
There’s another wrinkle, too. Easton Cowan, whom THN projects for 47 points, is also in line to battle for prime ice time, and Hiller will have to find a way to fit him in without overlooking what he can bring.
McKenna doesn’t have to clear 60 points to win the Calder. He does, though, need to pull away from the rest of the rookie pack. Whether he gets enough ice time to do that may decide everything.
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