It’s only two games, and that’s exactly why the numbers are worth a look.
Early-season standings can fool you fast, and a couple of breaks either way can make everything look different in a hurry. But through this tiny slice of the schedule, the five-on-five data from Natural Stat Trick does point to a few Maple Leafs who have been pushing the play and a few who haven’t.
The most eye-catching name is Jack Roslovic. He’s out in front of Toronto in five-on-five Corsi at 64.9 percent, leads the club in shots at 73.9 percent, sits second in scoring chances at 82.4 percent and is first in expected goals at 77.8 percent. For a player who probably wasn’t the first name people would have circled when talking about the Leafs’ offensive engine, that’s a strong opening.
Auston Matthews is right there too. He’s second in Corsi at 61.4 percent and second in shots at 72 percent, while also winning 56.5% of his faceoffs. Easton Cowan has made his presence felt as well, checking in third in Corsi at 60.5 percent, first in high-danger chances at 87.5 percent and third in expected goals at 66.9 percent.
Kirill Marchenko deserves a mention too. He leads the Maple Leafs in scoring-chance percentage at 84.2 percent, ranks second in high-danger chances at 84.2 percent and is second in expected goals at 70.4 percent. Put Roslovic, Matthews, Cowan and Marchenko together, and the early picture is pretty clear: those four have done a solid job of tilting the ice in the right direction.
Not everybody has been riding that wave.
Zack MacEwen’s numbers are rough, with a 20 percent Corsi and a zero percent share of both shots and expected goals at five-on-five. Brandon Duhaime has a 21.7 percent expected-goals share and just 31 percent of the shots. Teddy Blueger has also landed in the wrong neighborhood statistically, with a 20.8 percent Corsi, a 26.7 percent shot share and a 28.6 percent scoring-chance percentage.
Gavin McKenna’s early line also stands out, though not in a flattering way. He has a 28.3 percent Corsi and a 28 percent scoring-chance percentage.
Then there’s William Nylander. That one jumps off the page because of who he is and what he usually means to Toronto’s offence.
Through two games, he’s at just 34.2 percent in scoring chances and 23.2 percent in expected goals. That’s not where anyone expects him to live for long.
Still, the caution flag matters here. Two games is two games. Nobody should be making sweeping judgments about Nylander, MacEwen, Blueger, McKenna or anyone else based on 120 minutes.
The more useful takeaway is what’s happening near the top. Roslovic is driving play.
Matthews is driving play. Cowan is doing it too.
Marchenko is in the mix as well. That’s a promising group, and it gives Toronto something to track as the sample grows.
The real question now is whether those numbers hold up. Can Roslovic and Marchenko keep creating chances?
Does Cowan stay strong in the dangerous areas? Does Nylander’s expected-goals share climb back toward familiar territory?
That’s the value of looking this early. The numbers don’t tell you what the Maple Leafs are going to be. They just hand you a few clues about what might matter next.
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Leafs Got An Opening Ottawa Could Not Afford To Give Away
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The Leafs wasted little time taking advantage, scoring twice in a row after Sanderson exited to grab a 2-1 lead. In a game where every shift mattered, Ottawa could not afford to lose one of its top defensemen, and Toronto quickly showed why those kinds of openings rarely stay closed for long. [Read more 🡒]