The Chris Tanev situation has become a real talking point around the Leafs, and not because of some abstract debate about “maintenance.” He’s now been held out of two games as part of load management, and that naturally raises the question: what exactly are they trying to preserve?
A look at the Evolving Hockey RAPM numbers, now updated to include this season, paints a pretty stark picture. Tanev’s first year in Toronto was strong, but his last two seasons - both limited to very few games - have been among the worst of his career.
This season sits at the bottom. The issue is on the defensive side, where the model says his impact has been negative across the board.
He did have one worse defensive season in Vancouver, the Covid-shortened 2019-2020 campaign, but that’s the only one that grades out lower. With only 10 games this year, there’s no reason to treat it as a full-season verdict, and last year’s rough defensive stretch came in just 11 games, but the trend is still hard to ignore.
That’s part of why the Leafs’ early-season problems feel bigger than the usual noise. The two names that stand out most are Tanev and John Tavares, not William Nylander.
Tavares has been worse than Tanev by most measures, and since coming back from injury he’s been making the kind of puck mistakes that Gavin McKenna is in the process of growing out of. There’s still a path for him to straighten things out and get back to being better than Nick Paul, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Last night was a little smoother, though still not enough to change the overall picture.
Tanev, though, is the more worrying case. If he can’t handle the load of an NHL season, the obvious follow-up is whether he can handle it at all.
There was also a broader conversation around last night’s game, and some of the Leafs’ improvement that Justin Bourne has been talking about was visible. So were the problems. Both were there for anyone willing to see them, and Bourne covered that well.
One other stat got plenty of attention: Sergei Bobrovsky being discussed in terms of allowing three goals per game. The writer makes no secret of how little patience there is for goals-against average as a measuring stick, calling it “The stupidest stat, stupider than plus/minus is GAA.” Still, if we’re going to wade into that territory, then this was the takeaway: Anthony Stolarz is catching up quick, I tell you what.
There was also some appreciation for Zack MacEwen.
Beyond that, the day drifted into the usual Friday choice: stew in the frustration or move on. Either way, the Leafs are back against the Oilers on Saturday.
In Other News...
Maple Leafs May Have A Blue-Line Move Bigger Than A Rental
The Maple Leafs are looking beyond the usual deadline rental chatter and trying to land a defenseman who could matter well past this spring. Toronto has been linked to a handful of younger blue-liners who fit that idea, with Cam York, Alexander Nikishin, Rasmus Sandin and Simon Edvinsson all surfacing as possible targets because of their age, contract situations and potential to grow alongside the clubs core.
For a team that has spent plenty of time searching for answers on the back end, the appeal is obvious: this is about more than patching a hole for a playoff run. The challenge is finding a fit that makes sense now and later, and the names being discussed suggest Toronto is at least aiming high as the deadline approaches. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Losing Streak Has Jim Hiller Searching For Signs Of Life
After a 5-2 loss to Minnesota, Jim Hiller spent much of his postgame session circling back to the same problem that has followed the Leafs through a five-game losing streak: the mistakes are piling up, and they are costing them at the worst possible moments. The coach pointed to the breakdown that led to Matt Boldys winning goal and said the group has to clean up its play if it wants to stop the slide.
Hiller also weighed in on several individual performances, including Gavin McKenna, John Tavares and William Nylander, as he tried to separate the rough results from what he still believes the team can become. There was frustration in the room, but also a measure of cautious optimism, with Hiller suggesting the Leafs still have enough talent to turn things around if the details start to improve. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Are Seeing Progress But One Problem Still Looms
A day away from the rink gave the Maple Leafs a different kind of reset, with Jim Hiller pointing to the clubs off-ice workout at the Blue Jays facilities as a useful break from the usual routine. The change of scenery was meant to lift energy and keep the group from feeling stuck in the same daily pattern, and Hiller made it clear the setting itself left an impression.
The bigger picture, though, is still the one Toronto has been living with lately: signs of progress mixed with mistakes that continue to show up at costly moments. Hiller said the team has to keep building on the positives while protecting the culture around it, and with more games coming, the Leafs are trying to turn a productive day off the ice into something that carries over when the puck drops again. [Read more 🡒]