The Maple Leafs are already at a crossroads 19 games into the season, and the numbers tell a blunt story: an 8-9-2 record, a .474 winning percentage, and a team that has scored 64 goals while allowing 64.
Special teams have helped keep them afloat at times, but even that edge is starting to slip. The penalty kill, in particular, has trended the wrong way, and that has already cost them a few games over the past week to 10 days.
The issues run through every part of the roster. In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky has gone from a source of optimism to this year’s scapegoat. On the back end, Chris Tanev’s injury, underwhelming play from offseason addition Darren Raddysh, and a general lack of size and skill have left the defense exposed.
Up front, the lineup has been battered by injuries. John Tavares was first sidelined with an upper-body injury, then Kirill Marchenko went out with a lower-body injury, and just as Tavares returned, Jack Roslovic was hurt. William Nylander remains dangerous in the offensive zone, but his game still comes with giveaways and inconsistent effort away from the puck.
And then there is Auston Matthews.
Matthews has put together a strong offensive start with 11 goals and 27 points, good for sixth in the NHL scoring race. But the story around him goes beyond the points.
The Leafs need more from their captain, especially in terms of day-to-day leadership. He has the talent to carry a team, and this roster may need exactly that if it is going to make the playoffs.
Ten years into his career, the expectation is that he should be the one dragging this group forward.
The forward depth behind him has not helped. Rookie Gavin McKenna has struggled badly at five-on-five, and the bottom six has done a solid job keeping the puck out of its own net without offering much punch at the other end.
None of this should shock Leafs fans, given the uncertainty surrounding the roster before the season. But the expectation around the club was still a playoff push, and the results have not matched it.
Last season, the Philadelphia Flyers grabbed the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with 98 points. With the schedule now stretching from 82 games to 84, the thinking is that 100 points will be needed to get in this year.
That would mean a winning percentage around .595. The Leafs already have 18 points, so they would need 82 more over their final 65 games, a .631 pace that looks out of reach right now.
Still, there is a path, at least in theory. If the Maple Leafs can stay healthy and get average goaltending from Bobrovsky and his sidekick Anthony Stolarz, they could make a run at that 100-point target. But after the way they have played over the last week to 10 days, it is hard to ask fans to trust that outcome.
The fixes start in goal. Stolarz has had his moments, but the tandem has posted an .897 save percentage and a 3.04 goals-against average. That is not enough, especially when a few badly timed goals against can swing games.
They also need their forward group to settle in, and that means getting healthy. The first line has mostly stayed intact, with Matthews centering Jack Roslovic and Easton Cowan, but the second and third lines have been in constant flux.
The fourth line has been excellent at keeping the puck out of the net, but it is the top nine that has to carry this team. A healthy Tavares would help stabilize things, even if he ends up on the wing.
Marchenko matters even more, though he is still a week or more away.
That kind of health would not erase the defensive mistakes, improve Nylander’s back-checking, or clean up McKenna’s five-on-five issues. But it would at least give the Leafs something they have lacked on too many nights: a real chance.
The defense remains a major problem. Morgan Rielly is 32, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is 35, Jake McCabe is 33, Troy Stecher is 32, Raddysh is 30 and Tanev is 36.
None of the six regular defensemen is under 30, and the result is a blue line that is slow, undersized and not offering much offensively, either. The group has just two goals between them, or four if you include the defensemen who have filled in at times.
Behind the bench, Jim Hiller has had his share of strong moments, questionable ones and moments of stupidity. His in-game adjustments have been a plus, but there are still concerns about how he uses McKenna and whether he can settle on a consistent lineup. Injuries have influenced those choices, but after 19 games, the patience for excuses is wearing thin.
At this point, the message is simple: the entire team has to clean it up fast. The lazy plays, the slow starts, the giveaways, the bad penalties and the shaky goaltending all have to stop.
And if this team is going to turn itself around, Matthews has to be the one driving it. He has to take hold of the Maple Leafs and drag them kicking and screaming into the playoffs.
In Other News...
Maple Leafs Suddenly Have An Oliver Ekman-Larsson Decision To Make
Oliver Ekman-Larssons first season with the Maple Leafs has not gone the way anyone in Toronto would have hoped. Through 19 games, he has managed just one assist, and the overall picture has been one of a veteran defenseman looking a step slower than the club expected when it brought him in.
That has left the Maple Leafs with a real roster question as injuries begin to settle down and younger blueliners push for more opportunity. If Toronto decides it needs to open up those minutes, Ekman-Larsson becomes the kind of movable piece that could be on the table, even if the timing and the return remain very much in flux. [Read more 🡒]
Leafs Fans Are Already Debating A Blockbuster This Team May Need
Leafs chatter has a way of turning hypothetical ideas into full-blown debates, and this latest one is no exception. On social media, fans have been tossing around the kind of blockbuster framework that instantly grabs attention because it involves two of Torontos most recognizable names and a fresh angle on how the roster might be reshaped.
The appeal is obvious on the surface, but the practical hurdles are just as clear. Morgan Riellys no-trade clause complicates any move involving him, and William Nylander remains too important to Torontos attack to be treated lightly in any serious discussion. On the other side, there are also questions about whether Dylan Larkin would even consider a move north, which leaves this as more of a fan-driven thought experiment than a deal with real traction. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Suddenly Have A Shot At An Elite Young Scorer
The Maple Leafs are suddenly in the mix for a player who would change the look of their forward group if they can find a way to make it work. Reports from Kevin Weekes and other league sources say Flyers winger Matvei Michkov is available under unusual circumstances, and with Toronto always hunting for more high-end scoring, a young talent of that caliber is the kind of name that naturally jumps to the front of the conversation.
Michkov is in the final year of his contract, which only adds to the intrigue around what Philadelphia might do next and how aggressive interested teams can afford to be. For Toronto, the challenge is obvious: any serious pursuit would come at a steep price in assets and money, but the payoff would be landing one of the leagues most gifted young scorers at a time when that kind of upside is hard to ignore. [Read more 🡒]