The Toronto Maple Leafs’ hopes for 2026-27 start and end with Auston Matthews. After a year that left them at 32-36-14 and with the fifth-worst record in the league, the Leafs have spent the offseason changing just about everything around the star center: new leadership, new coaching, and a revamped backroom staff all arrive with the same mission - get Toronto back to the playoffs.
But the real hinge point is Matthews himself. He already owns a resume that looks straight out of a Hall of Fame case, with three Rocket Richards, a Hart Trophy, a Ted Lindsay, and a Calder Trophy. He also sits atop the Leafs’ all-time goals list with 428, and at 28 years old, there’s still plenty of runway left for him to add to that total.
The problem is that his last two seasons haven’t looked like the standard he set earlier in his career. Toronto has needed more than the 27 goals he scored in 60 games last season, especially after the club dropped from Atlantic Division winners to the bottom of the pack and saw its goal total fall from 267 to 252 between 2024-25 and 2025-26. Over a full season, that 27-goal pace would have landed around 37 goals - respectable for most players, but not enough for someone of Matthews’ caliber.
That’s why the biggest shift may be tactical. Craig Berube’s system asked Matthews to shoulder too much defensive work, and while he has long drawn Selke Trophy attention for his two-way game, Toronto needs him closer to the 60-plus goal threat he was in 2021-22 and 2023-24. Even getting him back to 40 goals consistently would change the equation for the Leafs.
Jim Hiller’s new system could be the answer if it frees Matthews to attack more often and spend more time around the net. The setup matters too, and Toronto may eventually pair him with first-overall pick Gavin McKenna, a playmaker who could feed Matthews the puck and pull attention away from the center. McKenna may not start the season there - the more likely opening look is beside John Tavares - but by midseason, that combination wouldn’t be a surprise.
The deployment numbers tell the story. Matthews has historically started in the offensive zone more than 60% of the time, peaking at 74.3% in 2022-23.
The last two seasons, though, that number dropped to 53.9% and 57.8%, a clear sign that he was being used in a more defensive role. If Hiller can swing that back toward offense, Matthews should have a better shot at rediscovering his best form.
Toronto’s summer additions are built to help with exactly that. Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, and Teddy Blueger all bring defensive responsibility that should lighten Matthews’ load.
Sissons has started in the defensive zone 69.8% of the time over his 12-year career, while Blueger’s career mark sits at 74.4%. Those are the kinds of players who can absorb the hard minutes and let Matthews stay where he does the most damage.
Health may be the other major piece. Matthews has played a full season only once in his NHL career, back in his rookie year of 2016-17.
After appearing in 81 games in 2023-24 and scoring 69 goals, he missed a combined 37 games over the next two seasons under Berube. His 2025-26 season was cut short by the kneeing incident involving Anaheim Ducks defenceman Radko Gudas, and he needed surgery this offseason.
That makes the addition of Andy O’Brien a notable move for the Leafs. O’Brien, a respected NHL figure and long-time offseason trainer for Sidney Crosby and Nathan MacKinnon, has also been part of four Stanley Cup-winning teams with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers. Toronto hired him to overhaul its sport performance department, which covers sport science, injury rehabilitation, and nutrition.
He’ll work alongside Dr. Craig Slaunwhite, Jason Martin, Josh Crouse, and Dr.
Jordan Shallow in a department designed to support the players more closely throughout the year. For Toronto, the goal is simple: keep Matthews healthy, keep him on the ice, and get him as close to 84 games as possible.
If the Maple Leafs can do that, and if Matthews gets back to being the force he has been for most of his career, the rest of the season should start to look a lot more manageable.
In Other News...
Matthew Knies Deal Already Looks Better For The Leafs
Matthew Knies long-term deal with the Maple Leafs was signed with the usual mix of hope and risk that comes with paying for upside before it has fully matured. Toronto committed six years at a $7.75 million average annual value in 2025, betting that Knies would keep trending into a key top-six piece and that the price would look sensible as the salary cap and comparable contracts kept moving. At the time, it was a notable investment in a player still building his full resume.
Now the market around other young forwards is starting to make that number look even more reasonable. Cutter Gauthier, a restricted free agent with the Anaheim Ducks, is reportedly in negotiations that could land in the $15-17 million AAV range, with Leo Carlssons recent $18 million AAV extension hanging over those talks as a reference point. Knies and Gauthier are different players in different situations, but the broader takeaway for Toronto is hard to miss: a contract that once looked ambitious can start to feel sharp if the next wave of comparables keeps climbing. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Projected Lineup Puts Familiar Faces In A Tough Spot
The Maple Leafs projected 2026-27 lineup offers a snapshot of how much the roster could change after a round of organizational adjustments, with new acquisitions and coaching tweaks reshaping the teams balance up front and on the back end. The exercise is less about where Toronto is today and more about how the club might try to blend scoring punch with more reliable two-way play if the right pieces settle into place.
What makes the projection interesting for Leafs followers is the way it creates pressure points for familiar faces while opening the door for newcomers to carve out meaningful roles. Health and consistency remain part of the conversation, especially in goal, where the team is still trying to sort out how much trust to place in Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz as the position gets redefined around them. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Camp Could Get Complicated Thanks To Two Overlooked Names
Training camp usually starts with the obvious names, the players everyone assumes are already locked in or fighting for the last few spots, but Bo Groulx and Marshall Rifai are the kinds of depth pieces who can quietly make things interesting for the Maple Leafs. Groulx brought good energy and solid play with the Marlies, and he even got a brief look with Toronto last season, which at least puts him on the radar when camp opens.
Rifai is the other name worth tracking because his game is built around physicality and defense, the sort of profile that can stand out if the new coaching staff wants a different look from its bottom-end options. Neither player is a favorite to break through, and neither comes with any guarantee, but both have enough going for them to keep this camp from being as straightforward as it first appears. [Read more 🡒]