Auston Matthews’ future in Toronto is suddenly tied to a simple, brutal question: does this team win enough this season to keep him?
That’s the line Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff drew, and it’s the kind of prediction that sends real ripples through the Maple Leafs conversation. Larkin believes that if Toronto misses the playoffs, Matthews is likely headed out when his deal winds down.
“If the Leafs miss the playoffs, then I think he's probably gone for the final year of his deal”
That idea has only added more heat to a topic that’s already been hanging over the franchise for months. Matthews has been pushing for real change, and the Maple Leafs have made moves to respond. But all of that only matters if the results show up once the regular season begins.
The pressure is easy to see. Matthews has been in Toronto for 10 years, and the Leafs still haven’t gotten past the second round. If that ceiling doesn’t finally break, the argument for staying starts to look a lot weaker.
The 2025-26 season also left Matthews with more questions than answers. He was short on offensive punch and battled injuries, including an MCL tear in mid-March that ended his season. Toronto needs him back near his best if it wants any real shot at keeping the conversation from turning ugly.
And while Matthews is the face of the team, he also holds the biggest card in the deck. He’s eligible to sign an extension next summer, which means his next move could define everything.
Still, the burden isn’t all on the front office or the supporting cast. He’ll have to deliver too, and that means setting the tone rather than waiting for everyone else to carry the load.
John Chayka built this roster with Matthews in mind, aiming to win with him either this season or the next. On paper, it’s a more balanced group than Toronto has had before. But paper doesn’t settle anything in this league.
The Leafs do have a path to the playoffs. They just can’t afford to waste it.
Staying healthy, getting production from their stars at both ends of the ice, and getting the right play in net from Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz will all matter. If those pieces click, Matthews could still be around long term.
If they don’t, Toronto may be staring at a very different future.
In Other News...
Leafs Already Have An Early Regret Watching Two Ex-Forwards Shine
Nick Robertson is already making an early impression in Pittsburgh, and it comes against the backdrop of a move that felt overdue in Toronto. The former Maple Leafs winger scored his first goal with the Penguins in a preseason game, a reminder that his speed and finish can still pop when he gets the right runway. For a Leafs club that has spent plenty of time trying to sort out its depth and identity on the wing, seeing a familiar name settle in quickly elsewhere is the kind of small development that gets noticed.
Matias Maccelli has done the same with the Islanders after signing a one-year contract, piling up three points in his preseason debut. He, too, is showing the sort of early chemistry and creativity that made him an intriguing fit before his time with Toronto ended. The Leafs are only in the opening stages of a new season, but watching two former forwards start strong in new uniforms is the sort of reminder that roster decisions can linger far beyond training camp. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs May Have Found The Blue Line Balance They Need
The Maple Leafs are still in the stage where the blue line is more puzzle than finished product, but the pieces are starting to make sense. Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev look like the kind of steady, defense-first pairing that can handle tough minutes, while Morgan Rielly alongside Darren Raddysh offers a different sort of balance with more puck movement and support from the back end.
What remains unsettled is the third pair, and that is where Torontos depth chart still feels open to interpretation. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Troy Stecher, Emil Andrae and Nick Blankenburg are all in the mix as the Leafs sort through options, and with time still left before the season, the club can keep weighing fit, role and chemistry before locking in its final look. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Blue Line Battle Just Got More Serious
The Maple Leafs are tightening the screws on their blue line as training camp moves toward opening night, putting defensemen Cole McWard and Dakota Mermis on waivers while they trim the roster ahead of the upcoming NHL season. Mermis saw action in 11 games for Toronto last year, while McWard arrived as a free agent signing this summer, and both had been part of the group fighting for a role in the teams defensive depth.
The move is another sign that the back end is still very much up for grabs, with several players competing for the limited spots available. Toronto still has decisions to make before the lineup is finalized, and these waiver moves suggest the margins are getting thinner by the day for anyone hoping to stick. [Read more 🡒]