Auston Matthews’ next contract with the Maple Leafs may be headed into a completely different financial universe, and the latest NHL cap projection is the reason why.
The league’s salary cap could climb all the way to $150 million, according to The Sheet’s Jeff Marek, who said he spoke with an unnamed NHL manager about where teams think things are going. Marek relayed the comment this way:
I had lunch with a manager...who said we think that-our team thinks that in five years the salary cap could be 150 million dollars.
That would be a massive jump from where the cap is projected to sit in the near future. PuckPedia has 2027-28 at $113 million and 2028-29 at $123 million, and that kind of steady climb makes a $150 million ceiling look less like fantasy and more like the next step in the league’s growth.
If that happens, the ripple effect on superstar contracts could be enormous. Cale Makar’s $20.4 million deal with the Colorado Avalanche has already reset the market, and it also changes how Matthews’ next negotiation looks from here.
Makar is set to make $7.2 million more per year than Matthews, who signed his extension three years ago. At the time, Matthews’ deal took up 15.1% of Toronto’s cap space.
Makar’s extension lands at 17.9%.
That percentage matters. Makar’s contract represents roughly 18% of the projected $113.5 million cap when it begins in 2027-28. Stretch that same share over a $150 million cap, and you get a number around $27 million.
That is why a future Matthews deal in the $25 million range suddenly doesn’t sound quite as outrageous as it would today.
Of course, the Leafs still need Matthews to look like Matthews. His last two seasons haven’t given him the cleanest negotiating position, but a strong 2026-27 could swing things back in his favor if he shows he’s again the best goal scorer in the world. That kind of season would give him real leverage.
And the stakes are obvious. A 69-goal scorer doesn’t come around often, and Toronto isn’t exactly eager to let that kind of talent walk away. Even if he never gets back to that peak, Matthews still has the ability to be a perennial 50-goal threat for the next five years.
What he needs now is the full package that made him so dangerous in the first place: the chances, the release, the shot speed, the skating speed, the dexterity. Those traits are what would justify a monster payday, whether it comes from the Maple Leafs or somewhere else.
If that version of Matthews returns, Toronto may not have much choice but to pay up. And if the cap really keeps climbing the way people around the league think it will, the Leafs might find that the bill is big - but not impossible.
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