Auston Matthews is still the face of the Toronto Maple Leafs, still carrying a $13.25 million cap hit for the next two seasons, and still headed toward unrestricted free agency in the Summer of 2028. But the conversation around his next contract has shifted in a hurry.
What once looked like a simple bet on an elite scorer now comes with more layers. Matthews’ recent injuries and drop in production have forced general manager John Chayka to look at something more complicated than the 69-goal peak that defined 2023-24. Toronto has to weigh what Matthews was, what he is now, and what he’ll be when a new deal would begin in 2028.
The 2023-24 season was the high-water mark. Matthews scored 69 goals in 81 games, finishing one shy of becoming the first 70-goal scorer since Teemu Selanne. It was the kind of year that reset expectations for everyone involved.
The next season brought a very different picture. Matthews dealt with a lingering injury that kept him out of the lineup periodically during the 2024-25 campaign, and he even traveled to Germany for treatment.
His numbers dipped hard. He fell from 69 goals to 33, and he scored only 21 5-on-5 goals after posting 48 the year before.
His shooting percentage also dropped by 6.1 percentage points.
Last season was tougher still. In 60 games, Matthews scored 30 goals before an MCL injury on March 12 ended his year. He has not played a full season since that record-breaking campaign, and that reality has changed how Toronto has to think about the future.
That’s why the next two years matter so much. Toronto has already tried to build for the present, adding depth pieces such as Colton Sissons, Nick Paul, and Jack Roslovic, while also signing Stanley Cup-winner Sergei Bobrovsky. The message is clear: this roster is built around a two-year window.
That leaves both sides in a waiting game. Matthews is auditioning for the Leafs, and the Leafs are auditioning for Matthews.
The hard part for Toronto is figuring out where the line should be. If Matthews gets back to 50 or 60 goals, the decision becomes much easier.
If the injuries keep dragging him down, the case for caution gets stronger. But if he stays elite without getting all the way back to the 2023-24 level, Chayka will have to decide how much of the next contract should be tied to the player Matthews still is rather than the 69-goal version Toronto already saw.
In Other News...
Auston Matthews Is Facing The Pressure Leafs Fans Know Too Well
Auston Matthews 2025-26 season ended with a career-low 27 goals and a knee injury, a frustrating year for a player Toronto leans on as both captain and highest-paid star. Even by the standards that come with wearing a Maple Leafs sweater, the pressure around Matthews only grows when the goals dont come in bunches, because his production is tied so closely to how the team is judged from one season to the next.
On TSNs OverDrive, Toronto Star reporter Dave Feschuk and host Bryan Hayes framed the conversation around what comes next, with the bar for Matthews clearly set high again heading into 2026-27. For the Leafs, a return to the 50-goal range is being treated as more than a number on a stat sheet, because it would go a long way toward re-establishing Matthews standing as the player expected to carry the team when the stakes rise. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Suddenly Face A Tough Call On One New Forward
The Maple Leafs have spent much of the offseason reshaping their roster, and the latest wave of additions up front has created a familiar problem: not enough cap room to comfortably keep everyone. With trade chatter around Morgan Rielly having cooled, attention has shifted to Dakota Joshua, a new forward whose size and style could still draw interest around the league as Toronto looks for ways to balance its books.
Joshuas situation is the kind of decision that tends to linger right up until camp, because Toronto can use another forward like him but also has to make the math work. A player with his profile can be useful both as a depth piece and as a trade chip, which leaves the Leafs weighing whether he fits better in the lineup or as part of a deal that clears space for what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Maple Leafs Face A Fast McKenna Decision With Real Stakes
Gavin McKenna is about to get a long look in Toronto, and the Maple Leafs are not treating camp like a formality. The first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft will take part in training camp and the preseason as the club gauges whether he can handle a top-six offensive role, a test that carries real weight for both the lineup and his development.
Jim Hiller and the Leafs have only a short runway to sort out where McKenna fits, with preseason games and the opening stretch of the regular season shaping the call. How he looks against NHL competition will help determine whether he stays with the team and how Toronto handles the start of his entry-level contract, a decision that could come into focus quickly once the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]