Auston Matthews is walking into this Maple Leafs season with something new hanging over him: a reputation check.
EA Sports didn’t do him any favors in NHL 27, either. The Toronto captain was left outside the game’s top 10 centers and comes in at a 92 overall, which puts him below William Nylander. For a player who has lived near the top of those rankings for years, that kind of slide is impossible to ignore.
It also fits the shape of this moment for Matthews. This is not the usual Leafs season where the conversation starts with how high he can climb. It’s about whether the last two years were injuries interrupting the picture, or the start of something more worrying.
The numbers from last season are the reason the spotlight feels sharper now. Matthews scored 27 goals in 60 games and finished with 53 points, averaging less than half a goal per game. That was the lowest scoring rate of his career, a sharp drop from the standard he set when he blasted 69 goals in 81 games in 2023-24 and earned a 95 overall in NHL 25.
Then came the injury. Near the end of last season, Matthews suffered a Grade 3 MCL tear after a hit from Radko Gudas. He spent the summer recovering, and that adds another layer of uncertainty as he heads into this year.
Still, the path back doesn’t require another 69-goal explosion. Matthews’ career averages tell a different story: roughly 51 goals over 82 games, along with 93 points and a 15.5 percent shooting percentage.
Last season, that shooting rate dropped to 12 percent, and he had just five power-play goals. A move back toward his normal efficiency would go a long way.
There’s also a new setup around him. Under head coach Jim Hiller, Matthews has a chance to benefit from a system that could mean more shot volume, a larger power-play role, and more one-timers. Those are the kinds of variables that can tilt a season.
So the real question isn’t whether Matthews can get back to 70 goals. It’s whether last season was a one-off caused by injury, or the first sign of a decline that changes how the league sees him.
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Maple Leafs Face A McKenna Decision They Can't Take Back
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So the real pressure lands on how the Leafs handle him in camp and through the first stretch of the season. They have to weigh his development and readiness against the long-term implications of that 10th game, which would trigger the contracts first season, and the decision point could come around the Oct. 19 game if he is still on the NHL roster by then. For a team trying to balance present needs with a franchise-level future, there is not much room for hesitation. [Read more 🡒]