Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s season has gone sideways in a way the Blue Jays probably never expected. He made the All-Star team, but the production on the field hasn’t come close to matching that label, and the biggest problem is staring everyone in the face: the power just hasn’t been there.
That’s the crux of the issue ESPN’s David Schoenfield pointed to when breaking down Guerrero’s down year. As he wrote, the “Primary cause: Shocking lack of power; declining chase rate (89th percentage in 2025 to 44th percentage); drop in number of 'barrels,'” Schoenfield writes.
The reduced barrel rate matters, and so does the drop in chase rate. But the clearest sign of Guerrero’s regression is simpler than all that: he’s not driving the ball out of the park.
Through 473 at-bats and 533 plate appearances, Guerrero has only eight home runs. Even more striking, every one of them has come on the road. He still has none at home.
The doubles total is sitting at 22, which is respectable enough, but it’s also well short of the 34 he averages over a 162-game season for his career. Still, the home run shortage is the real headline here. Eight homers in 126 games is a major falloff, especially when he had nine home runs in just 60 games back in 2020.
The decline shows up even more clearly in the home-run rate. Guerrero entered 2026 with a career mark of 4.3%, but this season he’s down at 1.5%.
It’s also the first time in his MLB career that his slugging percentage has dipped below .433. Right now, it sits at .357, a steep drop from his .480 career average.
There are multiple layers to Guerrero’s offensive struggles, but the biggest one is hard to miss. The Blue Jays are dealing with a version of him that has lost the very trait that usually defines his game, and Schoenfield’s phrase fits: a “shocking lack of power.”
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Blue Jays Just Created Another 40-Man Roster Question
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Cameron does have the option to reject the assignment and test free agency, but he is expected to stay with Buffalo for now. For Toronto, the move is another reminder of how quickly the 40-man picture can shift, especially with fringe depth pieces who are trying to hold onto a spot. Cameron has already shown a willingness to keep moving, including time in Korea with the Doosan Bears, and this latest turn leaves the Blue Jays with one more roster question to manage. [Read more 🡒]