After a strong 2024 and a massive long-term deal, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was supposed to take another step. Instead, the season settled into something much flatter.
By both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, Guerrero finished at 1.1 WAR, a mark valued at $8.6 million to the Blue Jays. His production dipped with it: a .305 wOBA and a 95 wRC+, down from .366 and 137.
The plate discipline numbers moved only slightly, but in the wrong direction overall. His walk rate fell to 9.2% from 11.9%, while his strikeout rate also dropped, from 13.8% to 13.3%.
The batted-ball profile changed too. In one stretch of the source data, his line-drive rate rose to 21.2% from 18.5, his ground-ball rate dipped to 46.5% from 48.1, and his fly-ball rate slipped to 32.3% from 33.4, with fewer of those fly balls leaving the park at 14.3% instead of 17.1.
Later in the season, those numbers shifted the other way: his line-drive rate fell to 17.3%, ground balls climbed to 48.6%, fly balls rose to 34.0%, and just 5.7% of his fly balls went for homers.
The quality of contact backed up the story. Soft contact ticked up to 17.3% from 16.8, while hard contact dropped to 37.3% from 40.5.
Split by situation, Guerrero was clearly better against lefties, hitting .282/.383/.420 compared to .253/.314/.336 against right-handers. He also produced more on the road than at home, posting a .271/.328/.401 line away from Toronto and .249/.335/.311 at home. His first half was better than his second, though only modestly: .262/.346/.357 before the break and .257/.306/.354 after it.
The month-to-month line shows just how uneven things got. April was his best stretch at .354/.438/.469 with 2 home runs, 15 walks and 15 strikeouts in 31 games.
May dropped to .232/.339/.284 with 1 home run, 15 walks and 10 strikeouts in 27 games. June was rougher still at .198/.235/.264 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 12 strikeouts in 23 games.
He bounced a bit in July to .256/.333/.395 with 2 home runs, 10 walks and 20 strikeouts in 23 games, then slid again in August to .221/.259/.299 with 1 home run, 4 walks and 9 strikeouts in 19 games. September finished at .275/.337/.400 with 2 home runs, 7 walks and 15 strikeouts in 21 games.
With runners in scoring position, he hit .254/.333/.341. In high-leverage spots he was a little better than in low leverage, batting .250/.340/.375 compared to .239/.310/.331.
There were still positives in the field, though the defense came with blemishes. Guerrero committed 8 errors at first base, most in the league, and his .992 fielding average sat below the league average of .995.
FanGraphs, meanwhile, had him at +6 Outs Above Average, the top mark among AL first basemen. On the bases, FanGraphs rated him at -1.6, and he went 7 for 11 stealing bases.
The source’s verdict was blunt: better off if he hadn’t tried.
His usage in the order stayed mostly in the middle. Batting third, he hit .267/.339/.373 in 103 games.
Hitting second, he was at .243/.317/.318 in 39 games. He came up first in the order once and went 1-for-4 with a .250/.250/.250 line.
At first base, he hit .276/.354/.376 across 127 games. As a DH, he was far less productive at .149/.162/.224 in 16 games.
He pinch-hit once and finished 0 for 1. The source also noted that last year he actually hit better as a DH than while playing first.
Toronto went 71-72 in his starts. His longest hitting streak was 12 games, his longest on-base streak was 14, he went 23 games without a home run, and his longest hitless streak was 4 games.
Some matchup numbers stood out. His best opponent was the Guardians, against whom he hit .364/.400/.591 in 6 games.
His worst was the Rays, where he managed just .143/.205/.171 in 10 games. Against starters the first time through, he hit .238/.296/.362.
The second time through, he improved to .284/.381/.388. The third time, he fell to .237/.276/.312.
He had 2 plate appearances against a starter for the fourth time and went 0 for 2. On first pitches, he hit .271/.284/.447 with 3 home runs.
The season also revived the conversation around LASIK. The source suggests it may become a talking point because other players have had it done, sometimes without making it public.
It also says Guerrero’s vision likely did not change dramatically over one winter, especially since teams check players’ eyes during spring training. Still, the idea of sharper vision is there, and confidence may matter too.
Through age 27, Guerrero’s career still trails his Hall of Fame father in several major categories, even if the younger Guerrero has the edge in others. The father leads in home runs, 209 to 192, and in bWAR, 31.5 to 26.9.
The son leads in RBI, 648 to 623, and in games, 1119 to 892. Dad also holds the advantage in OPS, .973 to .839.
Guerrero is moving up the Blue Jays’ all-time lists as well. He sits 6th in bWAR at 26.9, 11th in batting average at .285, 11th in on-base percentage at .361, 11th in slugging at .478, 9th in OPS at .839, 8th in games played at 1119, 6th in runs scored at 643, 6th in hits at 1218, 7th in home runs at 192, 9th in RBI at 591, and 5th in walks at 486.
What comes next is the real question. The source leans toward a bounce-back, simply because it is hard to buy that he could be this bad two years in a row. It also points to the possibility that any vision change - or the aches and pains mentioned as another factor - could make the start of next season choppy before things settle in.
And that’s the twist with a giant contract: every slump gets magnified. The money turns ordinary inconsistency into a storyline. Still, as the source puts it, that’s not exactly the worst problem to have.
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