Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s season has gone from expensive expectation to uncomfortable reality for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The first baseman was supposed to anchor one of baseball’s best lineups, the kind of bat that changes everything in the middle of a order. Instead, Toronto’s offense has slid hard, and Guerrero’s dip at the plate sits right at the center of it.
That’s what makes the Blue Jays’ place in the Wild Card race feel so striking. For a team still within reach, the production from its biggest offensive name has fallen well short of what comes with a four-year, $500 million extension he signed with the club last April.
The numbers tell the story plainly. After putting up an .848 OPS with 23 home runs and 4.6 bWAR in 2025, Guerrero has managed just 1.3 bWAR and nine homers.
His 89 OPS+ season, as ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle put it, has been a stunning drop-off. Doolittle wrote that Guerrero “on Sunday -- Sept. 13, two weeks before the end of the regular season -- went deep at Rogers Centre for the first time in 2026.”
Toronto’s broader offensive picture has been ugly, too. Doolittle noted that the Blue Jays’ attack has gone “from fourth to dead last in runs per game.”
Even more surprising is how little power has shown up across Guerrero’s line. His .696 OPS ranks third on the team, behind George Springer’s .746 and Kazuma Okamoto’s .779. For a player who won’t turn 28 until March, that kind of power drop is a real problem for the Blue Jays, especially after paying him to do exactly that.
Guerrero shouldn’t be blamed for everything going wrong with Toronto’s offense. But when the biggest bat is no longer producing like one, he becomes the first place everyone looks.
In Other News...
Blue Jays Suddenly Face A Costly Problem In The Wild Card Race
The Blue Jays left Detroit with one of those losses that can linger well beyond a single night. Toronto had chances early, put pressure on the Tigers in key spots and still came up empty, a missed opportunity in a crowded Wild Card race where every game seems to carry a little more weight. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to the plate with runners on base more than once, but the big hit never arrived, and the offense could not turn those openings into the kind of cushion this team needed.
Torontos problem was not limited to the lineup, either. With key relievers unavailable, the margin for error shrank even further once the game tightened, and the Blue Jays had to navigate it without some of the bullpen options they would normally lean on in a late-season push. In a race this tight, nights like this can add up quickly, especially when a club gets traffic on the bases and still walks away with nothing to show for it. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Waste Another Strong Night In A Brutal Late Collapse
Jos Soriano gave the Blue Jays exactly what they needed for most of the night, working six strong innings and putting Toronto in position to leave with a win. For a while, it looked like another straightforward case of solid pitching carrying a team that has been trying to find steadier footing, and the Blue Jays had enough going to keep the game tight into the later innings.
Instead, the Tigers chipped away when it mattered most, with Kazuma Okamotos seventh-inning home run starting the turn and the finish coming apart in painful fashion. A defensive misplay in the ninth inning opened the door for the winning run, turning what had been a promising night into a 6-5 loss and another reminder that Toronto is still giving games away late. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Suddenly Have A Lineup Concern Fans Were Watching Closely
The Blue Jays are in the middle of a stretch that demands careful lineup management, and the latest update on Anthony Santander only adds to the scrutiny. Toronto has been using a bullpen day approach, with Spencer Arrighetti, Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano lined up for upcoming starts, so every bit of roster planning matters as the club tries to keep things steady.
Santander is dealing with back stiffness and is not playing for the Bisons, which makes a promotion to Toronto this week look unlikely. In the meantime, George Springer is getting recognition as a candidate for the Roberto Clemente Award for his community work and his advocacy related to stuttering, while the organization also had some encouraging minor league news with Jojo Parker and Demeury Pena named Florida State League All-Stars from the Dunedin Jays. [Read more 🡒]