Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s season has split almost perfectly along with the Blue Jays’ results.
That’s the uncomfortable takeaway as Toronto’s playoff push continues to fade. Heading into Wednesday, Guerrero was hitting .261 with nine home runs and 56 RBI through 137 games, a line that falls well short of what many expected after his playoff performance for the ages last year.
The gap becomes even more glaring when you break it down by wins and losses. In Toronto’s victories this season, Guerrero has hit .366. He has only seven home runs in those games, but he’s still done plenty of damage by reaching base and keeping innings alive.
In the Blue Jays’ losses, the picture flips hard. Guerrero is batting just .153 with two home runs when Toronto comes up short.
In the 137 games Guerrero has played, the Blue Jays are 68-69, and the pattern has been hard to miss. The numbers don’t explain everything about Toronto’s season, but they do show how closely Guerrero’s output has tracked with the team’s fortunes.
When he has been rolling, the Blue Jays have usually found a way. When he hasn’t, wins have been much harder to come by.
Toronto’s postseason hopes are still alive, but only barely. The Blue Jays have dropped four of their last six and now sit two games back of the Cleveland Guardians for the final American League wild-card spot. With 10 games left, FanGraphs gives Toronto a 21.9 per cent chance to reach the postseason.
In Other News...
Blue Jays Pitching Depth Suddenly Has Two More Arms To Watch
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For a Toronto system that already has several pitching prospects drawing interest for their development this year, the addition of Guerra and Thompson to that conversation only adds to the sense that the pipeline is getting deeper. Neither is finished climbing, and both still have work to do before they become real big-league options, but each has put himself in a position to rise further in the organizations rankings if the progress keeps coming. [Read more 🡒]
Daulton Varshos Post-Blue Jays Drop Could Cost Him Big
Daulton Varshos exit from Toronto was always going to be watched closely, but the aftershock has been harder to ignore as his production has slipped since the move to Houston. After showing enough across his time with the Blue Jays to draw plenty of attention, he has not matched that level at the plate, and the defensive numbers have gone the wrong way too.
For a player heading into the upcoming offseason, that kind of regression matters. The drop in performance has reportedly taken a bite out of his free-agent value, and the sense around the industry is that he may need to settle for a shorter or lower-value deal if he wants the chance to rebuild his stock next season. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Defensive Problem May Not Be Who Fans Think
The Blue Jays have spent much of this season living with a strange defensive split: by Sept. 9, they had allowed the most infield hits in MLB excluding bunts, even as their overall defensive numbers still landed among the leagues better groups. It is the kind of stat that can make a team look sloppier than it really is, especially when the eye test on individual defenders does not point to one obvious weak link.
A closer look suggests the problem is more layered than simple foot speed or range. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has shown some issues charging balls even with good reflexes, Ernie Clement has been vulnerable moving left at second base, Kazuma Okamoto has had trouble going right at third, and Andrs Gimnez has continued to stand out at short despite only average sprint speed. In other words, the Blue Jays infield hit issue seems tied to specific movement patterns and reactions, not one broad defensive flaw. [Read more 🡒]