A month ago, the Blue Jays were still hanging around the playoff chase. Now the conversation in Toronto has shifted fast. At 48-58 and 10 games under .500, with 12 losses in their last 18 games, the club is staring at the trade deadline from a very different place than it was just a few weeks ago.
That change in direction puts the front office in a tougher spot. It is no longer about finding one more jolt for a late push. It is about sorting through the roster and deciding who still fits the long-term picture and who could wind up in trade talks.
Daulton Varsho is one of the more interesting names in that mix, and not for the reason anyone would have expected. His glove is still elite.
His range, speed and work in center field continue to make him one of baseball’s premier defenders. But the bat has gone cold, and the timing could hardly be worse with Toronto evaluating every part of its roster before the deadline.
Since June 23, Varsho has hit .225 with a .250 on-base percentage and a .303 slugging percentage. In that stretch, he has managed only one home run in 26 games, and his .079 ISO is a sharp drop from the power he showed earlier in the season.
The month of July has been even rougher. In 19 games, Varsho is slashing .203/.227/.219 with no home runs and a .016 ISO. His 23 wRC+ is among the lowest marks posted by Toronto’s regular position players during that span.
What stands out is that the slump has not been driven by strikeouts. Varsho’s 10.6 percent strikeout rate in July is actually one of the lowest in the lineup.
The problem has been what happens when he does put the ball in play. The extra-base hits have vanished, and his walk rate has dropped to 3.0 percent, leaving him with very little room to help offensively.
That has shown up in the biggest moments, too. Since June 23, Varsho has a 20 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, has not drawn a walk in those spots and has struck out in more than 33 percent of those plate appearances. For a team already short on offense, that kind of production matters even more.
And Toronto’s offense has been in a deep slide at the same time. Since June 23, the Blue Jays have put up a 72 wRC+, the third-lowest figure in Major League Baseball over that stretch.
They are hitting .220 with a .275 on-base percentage and a .341 slugging percentage. Only the Yankees and Cardinals have been worse offensively in that span.
When runs are this hard to come by, every lineup spot carries extra weight. Toronto has lost one of its few power threats just when nobody else has stepped up to replace that production.
That is why Varsho’s slump matters beyond his own numbers. It feeds directly into the decisions the front office has to make before the deadline.
The Blue Jays, sitting at the bottom of the division, first have to decide whether they are sellers at all. Over the next few days, it should become clearer whether Varsho is part of those discussions.
His defense still comes with the same elite reputation. His bat, right now, comes with a lot more uncertainty.
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The bigger question for Toronto is how aggressive it wants to be with its own inventory. The Blue Jays have younger pieces they would probably prefer to keep, even if they are open to moving some veterans, which creates the kind of tension that often defines deadline talks. If New York keeps circling Toronto, the Jays may find themselves weighing not just what they can get back, but which outfield names they are willing to make available at all. [Read more 🡒]