Eric Lauer’s arbitration hearing didn’t go his way. The Blue Jays left the room with a win, locking him in at $4.4 million for the 2026 season-well below the $5.75 million the left-hander was hoping to earn.
Now, this wasn’t your typical arbitration case. Lauer’s path has been anything but linear.
Back in 2022, he was coming off a strong campaign with the Brewers-158 2/3 innings with a 3.69 ERA and a 4.07 SIERA. That kind of performance earned him a solid bump in pay, more than doubling his salary to $5.075 million in his second year of arbitration eligibility.
But then came 2023, and things unraveled. Injuries limited him to just 46 2/3 innings, and the results weren’t pretty: a 6.56 ERA and a 5.31 SIERA.
Milwaukee ultimately cut ties, removing him from the roster at season’s end. Lauer hit free agency and bounced around on minor league deals with the Pirates and Astros before heading overseas to pitch in the KBO with the Kia Tigers.
That stint in Korea turned out to be a career reset. His late-season work there was enough to earn him a minor league deal with Toronto.
And by the end of April 2025, he was back in the big leagues. From there, Lauer quietly became a key contributor for a Blue Jays team that went on to win the American League.
Over 104 2/3 innings, working in a hybrid starter-reliever role, he posted a 3.18 ERA and a 3.88 SIERA-numbers that speak to both effectiveness and consistency in a swingman role that’s often undervalued.
Given that performance, it made sense when Toronto tendered him a contract. But the arbitration process is as much about precedent and technicalities as it is about recent results.
Here’s where things get nuanced. According to the collective bargaining agreement, a club can’t offer a salary that’s more than 20% below what a player made the previous year-unless the player had won an arbitration case the year before that resulted in a salary jump of 50% or more. In Lauer’s case, his 2025 salary was technically just $2.2 million (prorated to under $1.8 million since he joined midseason), but his last full arbitration salary in 2023 was $5.075 million-a figure that had already jumped by more than 50% from his first-year arbitration salary.
That means the Blue Jays’ $4.4 million offer was well within the rules. And the arbitration panel agreed.
The team not only saves $1.35 million in salary but also avoids an additional $1.215 million in luxury tax penalties. That’s meaningful for a club navigating the upper tiers of the payroll structure.
Still, from Lauer’s camp, the argument likely centered around a broader precedent. It’s rare for a third-year arbitration salary to come in below the second-year figure, especially for a player who returned to the majors and delivered.
There’s also a track record of players who leave the arbitration system and come back still receiving raises. But in this case, the panel sided with the team, not the precedent.
Looking ahead, Lauer is expected to reprise his swingman role for the Blue Jays in 2026. He’s projected to start the year in the bullpen, but according to team reports, he’ll be stretched out during spring training.
That flexibility-being able to step into the rotation or eat innings out of the pen-is exactly why Toronto brought him back. And if he can replicate his 2025 form, the $4.4 million price tag could end up looking like a bargain.