The Blue Jays are trying to stop the bleeding against a Rangers club that has had their number all season.
Texas has already taken the first four meetings between the teams, and three of those games were decided by one run during the late-June series at Rogers Centre. Toronto also ran into a wall against Texas ace Dylan Cease in that stretch.
Cease came into that first game with plenty on the line, both as the Blue Jays’ main starter this season and as a pitcher firmly in the American League Cy Young mix. FanGraphs’ prediction has Cam Schlittler leading the league with 133.0 points, with Cease second at 115.2.
The Rangers never let him breathe. Cease was gone after just eight outs, walked six, and gave up four runs in the second inning, though only one was earned because of Ernie Clement’s error at shortstop.
The last time Cease failed to reach five innings was also against Texas, when he exited after 4 2/3 innings on June 27 in Toronto. He struck out 10 that night, but the Rangers still beat the Blue Jays 7-4.
Texas carried that momentum into Friday night at Globe Life Field, rolling to a 7-1 win in Game 1. That leaves Toronto needing an immediate response, with the club now two games out of the Wild Card and only eight games left in the regular season. The win also pushed Texas back into a tie with Houston for first in the AL West.
Toronto now turns to José Soriano, who is 12-7 with a 3.56 ERA over 169 1/3 innings. His season numbers look solid, but the recent stretch has been shakier: a 4.54 ERA in his last seven starts across 41 2/3 innings, along with 12 walks and 29 strikeouts. The walks are the big issue, and the Blue Jays need him to avoid falling behind in counts and giving Texas extra chances.
That matters because the Rangers have made a habit of winning the tight ones. They’re 23-17 in one-run games, while Toronto sits at 19-23 in those same situations. Soriano’s sinker and knuckle-curve give him the tools to keep contact down if his command is there, and Toronto needs him to go deep enough to keep the bullpen from getting stretched again after Cease lasted only 2 2/3 innings in Game 1.
He’ll also have to navigate a Rangers lineup with some clear trouble spots. Corey Seager is hitting .364 against Soriano in 11 at-bats, with one homer, three RBIs and a 1.136 OPS. Wyatt Langford has four hits in eight at-bats and three RBIs, and Jake Burger has four hits and two RBIs.
At the same time, Soriano has handled several Texas bats well in the past. Evan Carter is hitting .125 against him, Josh Jung is at .111 and Brandon Nimmo is at .143.
Toronto’s own starter in the matchup is right-hander Cal Quantrill, and he’s been in excellent form. Quantrill is 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA, and over his last seven starts he has posted a 1.88 ERA in 43 innings with 38 strikeouts and only six walks. Last year, he went 4-12 with a 6.04 ERA, but Texas believed in his experience when few teams were showing interest, and that bet has paid off.
The biggest change has been the sinker. It allowed a .473 slugging percentage last year, but this season opponents are hitting just .216 against it with a .315 slugging percentage, and Quantrill has allowed only one home run in 119 plate appearances. His four-seam fastball and split-finger have also become major pieces of the mix, giving him whiff rates above 24% with both for the first time since 2021.
Quantrill has also been a problem for Toronto specifically. In three starts against the Blue Jays, he has thrown 17 innings with 21 strikeouts, three walks and a 1.59 ERA.
He is also riding a streak of 13 straight scoreless innings that began when he was with the San Diego Padres. Toronto has had little success against him, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going 1-for-7 with one walk, Kazuma Okamoto 0-for-2 and Alejandro Kirk 0-for-5, with both failing to reach base.
The Blue Jays had won the season series 4-2 over the previous two years, but this season Texas has flipped the script. With both teams still chasing postseason goals, these remaining games loom large.
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Tigers Rotation Picture Just Got More Interesting With Their Newest Arm
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Across the AL, the rotation picture is shifting in other places too. Boston punched its postseason ticket even in a loss to Tampa Bay, while Detroit is turning to right-hander River Ryan, a recent acquisition from Los Angeles, for its upcoming game. It is the kind of late-season movement that can change how a contender lines up the final stretch, and Toronto will be watching closely as the pieces keep moving around them. [Read more 🡒]