Trey Yesavage’s latest start didn’t just go sideways for the Blue Jays. It put a spotlight on a problem that had been simmering for weeks.
The 22-year-old right-hander lasted only 1.2 innings against the San Diego Padres on July 11, walking seven and giving up four runs on one hit. That kind of outing gets everyone’s attention fast. But the bigger issue is that the collapse wasn’t random - it fit a pattern that had already started to show up in the numbers.
Yesavage’s 3.72 ERA through his first 75 innings still looks solid on the surface. Dig a little deeper, though, and the picture changes. His 4.11 FIP and 4.95 xFIP point to trouble with the strike zone that was already there before July turned ugly.
May was the high point. He posted a 2.56 ERA and struck out 10.23 batters per nine innings, and it looked like Toronto had another real rotation piece on its hands.
June brought the first cracks. His ERA jumped to 4.75, hitters stopped chasing his breaking pitches as often, and his FIP climbed to 5.60.
This month has been even rougher. In just 7.2 innings, Yesavage has a 7.04 ERA and is walking 10.57 batters per nine innings.
His K-BB% has dropped to -2.7%, which is a glaring sign that command has slipped badly. When a pitcher is walking more hitters than he’s striking out, he’s living behind in the count and rarely dictating anything.
The issue doesn’t appear to be velocity. It’s more about how hitters are handling him now.
According to his Statcast page, Yesavage leans on a four-seam fastball 46% of the time, a splitter 30% of the time and a slider 25% of the time. Early in the season, that mix helped him get swings outside the zone because hitters were still figuring him out.
That edge has faded. Opponents are chasing less and forcing him into counts where his command starts to unravel.
The count data makes that clear. When he gets to 1-0, his walk rate climbs to 21.5%.
At 2-0, it jumps to 40%. In 3-0 and 3-1 counts, he walks hitters in 65.2% and 56.3% of plate appearances, respectively.
That points to a pitcher who hasn’t yet found a secondary pitch he can trust when he falls behind. From there, he’s stuck hoping hitters expand the zone or challenging them with a fastball that can become too easy to sit on.
The quick slide also makes more sense when you look at the batted-ball and strand-rate numbers. In May, Yesavage worked with a .211 BABIP and stranded 77.5% of the runners who reached base against him.
In July, that strand rate has fallen to 51.7%. Once the walks pile up, every ball in play becomes a bigger problem.
For Toronto, that changes the conversation around him in the second half. Not long ago, Yesavage looked like a young starter settling into the middle of a rotation. Now he looks more like a developing arm who has to get his command back before he can take the next step.
That leaves the Blue Jays with a real decision. If the walk spike is tied to the fatigue that can come with a first full season as a professional starter, easing his workload could help keep it from getting worse. If it’s mechanical, then Toronto needs to find the fix before the control issues become something more permanent.
The club can live with a rookie giving up contact while he learns. What it can’t live with is one of its most important young pitchers losing the ability to throw strikes.
A month ago, Yesavage looked like someone who could help anchor Toronto’s rotation now and later. Right now, the question is much simpler: can he get back to the skill that carried him here in the first place?
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