The Astros went into the Daulton Varsho deal looking for a reliable glove, a seasoned outfielder and maybe a little October juice. Instead, they may be staring at a tough roster call before the postseason even arrives.
That’s the gist of FanSided’s look at “One difficult roster move every MLB playoff team must make before October,” which Chris Kline published on September 8. The piece focused on teams already in playoff position at the time, so the Blue Jays were not included because they were one game back. But Varsho, now in Houston, was one of the players singled out.
Kline wrote, "The Astros made a couple marginal moves at the deadline, including a trade for ex-Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho. Just last year, Varsho tore through MLB over the second half of the season. He was electric during Toronto's World Series run, providing serious thump at the plate on top of elite defense in center field.
Varsho can still provide value with his glove, but the bat is M.I.A. since joining the Astros. Varsho has been in a funk all season, really, but his production has entered especially dire territory - batting .173 with a .582 OPS - in Houston.
The Astros simply cannot afford to keep him in the lineup unless there's a quick and dramatic turnaround. Since he's on an expiring contract, Varsho could end up on the chopping block."
That’s the kind of reality check that comes with October roster math. The Astros wanted a boost. Right now, they’re getting a player whose defense still matters, but whose bat has gone missing at the worst possible time.
There’s also a Blue Jays angle here, because Toronto didn’t exactly escape the deal untouched. Spencer Arrighetti has not solved their pitching problems, and he hasn’t been the stabilizing arm the club needs while John Schneider tries to piece together a rotation down the stretch.
Beyond Dylan Cease, José Soriano and Max Scherzer, the rotation has looked thin, and Toronto is still hanging on. The hope is that they can get even a little bit of the Arrighetti they saw earlier in the year with Houston.
From his first start on Apr. 15 through May 28, Arrighetti made eight starts and logged a 1.37 ERA and 3.99 FIP with 43 strikeouts in 47 innings. But things turned in his June 3 outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he gave up four earned runs, his season high at that point. June went sideways from there, with Arrighetti allowing 25 earned runs and posting a 9.00 ERA for the month.
Since June 3, the numbers have only gotten rougher: 52 earned runs allowed, an 8.26 ERA, 15 home runs surrendered and 10 losses in 13 games.
While Varsho’s situation in Houston has turned into a question mark, Toronto has gotten a real lift from the outfield opening his absence created. Brett Bateman has stepped in and handled the opportunity well since his MLB debut in early August.
Bateman, acquired from the Chicago Cubs along with infielder Ty Southisene in the Kevin Gausman deal, has become one of the more encouraging pieces in Toronto’s late-season run. Since joining the organization, he has hit .330/.398/.385 with 16 runs scored and 1.2 fWAR over his first 27 games. His speed, defense and contact skills have given the Blue Jays a different look at the top of the order, something they have needed all season.
The contrast with Varsho is hard to miss. Bateman had already piled up 1.2 fWAR entering Wednesday’s game, which works out to an 8-fWAR pace over a full 162-game season. Varsho, by comparison, has produced 1.3 fWAR over 130 games.
So the Astros are left to sort out whether Varsho still fits in their October plans, while the Blue Jays have at least found one piece of the trade picture that looks promising.
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The obvious complication is who else might be at the table, with the Dodgers also mentioned as a possible destination in what could become a serious bidding war. For the Blue Jays, the appeal is easy to see: a rotation headlined by Skubal and Dylan Cease would give them a pair of high-end arms to build around, but that idea remains firmly in the projection stage for now. [Read more 🡒]