Bowden Francis’ path back to the Blue Jays remains one of the biggest unknowns hanging over Toronto’s rotation plans.
Francis went from an intriguing midseason move into the starting rotation in early August 2024 to one of the most surprising stretches the club got from any arm. Over his final eight appearances, he was dominant, logging a 1.33 ERA across 54 innings with 49 strikeouts and just six walks.
He turned in four straight starts of at least seven innings, and in seven of those final eight outings he worked at least six. Much of it came on the back of his four-seam fastball, which Statcast rated in the 97th percentile with a +15 Run Value.
His splitter (+4) and sinker (+1) also played major roles, and opponents managed only a .216 xBA and .391 xSLG.
But the rise didn’t last. Francis began dealing with right shoulder discomfort in June 2025, with impingement and inflammation part of the issue.
His season had already gone uneven by then - a 7.89 ERA in April, followed by a 4.74 ERA in May - before everything unraveled in June, when he posted a 12.46 ERA and his K-BB% dropped from 14.0 to -3.9. Left-handed hitters especially gave him problems, accounting for 14 of the 19 home runs he surrendered in just 14 starts while hitting .630 slugging percentage.
He tried to keep moving forward in September and made progress in rehab, but he never made it back to the mound before the season ended. Then, almost five months later in February of this year, Francis had Tommy John surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. That wiped out his entire season, and as of October he’s still working through recovery in Arizona, with no confirmed date to resume throwing in 2027.
That leaves Toronto with more questions than answers. Francis’ return timeline is unclear, and so is the shape of his stuff if and when he’s medically cleared.
The bigger issue for the Blue Jays is simple: they can’t count on him, and they can’t count on the other arms that were supposed to deepen the staff either. Cody Ponce and Jose Berrios are part of that same uncertainty, and heading toward the 2027 season, Toronto will have to map out its rotation without any guarantee that those names are available.
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