The Toronto Blue Jays are continuing their methodical offseason approach, and this time it’s another calculated swing at upside. Right-hander Jorge Alcala is the latest addition, joining the club on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. It’s the kind of low-risk, high-reward move that’s become something of a calling card for Toronto’s front office in recent years-and there’s reason to believe this one could quietly pay off.
Alcala’s 2025 season was a whirlwind. He suited up for three different teams-starting with the Twins, moving to the Red Sox via trade in June, and finishing the year with the Cardinals after being claimed off waivers in August.
Across those stops, he logged 55 innings over 56 appearances. The strikeout numbers were still there-10.0 K/9 is nothing to scoff at-but the rest of the stat line tells the story of a pitcher struggling to find his footing: 6.22 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 13 home runs allowed, and a walk rate north of 4.9 per nine innings.
For a guy who once looked like a staple in the Twins’ bullpen, it’s been a tough fall. Between 2020 and 2021, Alcala was a rising piece in Minnesota’s late-inning plans, racking up 83.2 innings with a 3.55 ERA, a strong 27.2% strikeout rate, and a manageable 6.5% walk rate.
His fastball back then averaged 97 mph and had late life that gave hitters fits. But arm issues derailed his momentum, and over the next two seasons, he managed fewer than 20 total innings.
Then came 2024, a year that hinted at a resurgence. Alcala pitched in 54 games, struck out 58 over 58.1 innings, and posted a 1.03 WHIP-good enough for 1.4 bWAR. He still had some blemishes, like the eight home runs allowed and a 3.1 BB/9, but overall, he looked like he was getting back to form.
That progress didn’t hold in 2025. The walk rate jumped, the home runs piled up, and the consistency vanished. But here’s where it gets interesting: Alcala’s underlying metrics suggest there may still be something to work with.
His four-seam fastball averaged 97.2 mph last season, placing him in the 89th percentile league-wide. That’s elite velocity, and it’s backed up by a hard-hit rate (37.6%) that ranked in the 71st percentile.
In other words, when he’s on, he’s still tough to square up. The challenge, as always, is command.
His walk rate ballooned to 11.7%, which made it harder to hide the mistakes. But even there, the numbers hint at some bad luck.
Alcala’s expected batting average against sat at .239, yet opponents hit .351 on balls in play-a massive BABIP that suggests some of those hits might’ve been more about where the ball landed than how it was hit.
Could better defense behind him help? Quite possibly.
The Twins ranked among the league’s worst defensive units in 2025, with a -23 Fielding Run Value and a defensive fWAR of -12.3. That’s a tough environment for any pitcher, let alone one trying to re-establish himself.
The Cardinals and Red Sox, where Alcala finished the year, were much stronger defensively-both ranking top five in fWAR. But neither matched the Blue Jays, who led the league in several defensive metrics.
If Alcala makes the roster, he’ll be pitching in front of one of baseball’s most reliable gloves-first units.
Still, defense alone won’t fix everything. Alcala gave up too many barrels last season, and his expected slugging percentage (.424) shows he wasn’t just getting dinked and dunked.
He’ll need to keep the ball in the yard and do a better job avoiding the big mistake pitch. But if he can tighten up the command and let his fastball play in the zone more consistently, there’s a real path back to being a useful bullpen piece.
For the Blue Jays, this isn’t about finding the next closer-it’s about building depth and creating internal competition. While fans may have been hoping for a splashy bullpen signing to push Jeff Hoffman or lock down the eighth inning, the front office is clearly betting on a numbers game: bring in enough arms with upside, and one or two might just hit.
Alcala fits that mold. He’s got the stuff, he’s shown flashes of being more, and now he’s in a system that might help him put it all back together.
It’s a flyer. But it’s a smart one.