The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t sitting still this offseason. After falling just short in the World Series, they’ve come out swinging in free agency-and they’ve already made some noise.
The headliner? A seven-year deal for Dylan Cease, one of the top arms on the market.
Add in Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce, and it’s clear Toronto is serious about staying in the championship mix.
But not everything has gone their way. The Jays were firmly in the hunt for Kyle Tucker and reportedly put a $350 million, 10-year offer on the table.
He ended up choosing the Dodgers. Then came the Bo Bichette situation.
Toronto hoped to bring back their star shortstop, but he opted for a shorter, high-dollar deal with the Mets instead.
Now, with two major targets off the board, the Jays could pivot back to bolstering their pitching staff. One name still floating on the market?
Framber Valdez. The lefty has drawn interest from multiple teams, and according to reports, Toronto met with him during the GM meetings back in November-before they landed Cease.
There was mutual interest at the time, but it’s unclear if the Blue Jays are still in the mix.
Valdez’s market includes some big players. The Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox have all been linked to him.
Baltimore’s interest apparently remained even after they inked Pete Alonso to a $155 million deal. The Giants are reportedly eyeing a shorter-term commitment, while the Mets are leaning toward adding arms via trade.
As for Boston, their recent moves-signing Ranger Suarez and trading for both Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo-may have taken them out of the running.
For the Blue Jays, it’s a question of fit-both on the field and on the books. Their projected payroll for 2026 sits at $282 million, with a luxury tax payroll of $310.5 million.
That’s already over the top luxury tax threshold of $304 million. The offer they made to Tucker would’ve come with a $35 million average annual value and a hefty $31.5 million tax hit.
But Tucker was arguably the premier bat on the market, and Toronto may have been willing to stretch for a player of that caliber.
Valdez, while not quite in that same tier offensively (obviously), brings a different kind of value. He’s older than Tucker, Bichette, and Cease, and was projected to land a five-year, $150 million deal.
For Toronto, that would mean a $30 million AAV and an additional $27 million in tax penalties-pushing the total 2026 cost to $57 million. On top of that, Valdez turned down a qualifying offer from Houston, meaning the Jays would also forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks if they signed him.
And here’s the thing: Toronto’s rotation is already looking pretty stacked. Cease joins a group that includes Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Cody Ponce.
That’s a deep, talented mix. So while Valdez would certainly be a luxury addition, he might not be a necessity-especially at that price point.
Still, Valdez brings a lot to the table. From 2022 to 2025, he racked up 16.5 fWAR-fifth-most among qualified starters, sandwiched right between Gausman and Cease.
He’s built his success on keeping the ball in the yard and pounding the zone with sinkers that generate grounders at an elite clip. His 0.68 HR/9 over that four-year stretch ties him for fifth-best among starters, and his 60% groundball rate leads all pitchers with at least 500 innings.
In every full season of his career, he’s never dipped below a 54.2% groundball rate.
Durability? He’s got that, too.
Since the start of 2022, Valdez has thrown 767 2/3 innings-second only to Logan Webb. Last season was more of the same: 192 innings across 31 starts with a 3.66 ERA, a 58.6% groundball rate, and a solid 14.8% K-BB rate.
That said, the second half of 2025 wasn’t his best. Over his final 71 innings, he posted a 5.20 ERA.
He struggled to miss bats in August, striking out just 12.8% of hitters, and gave up six home runs in 27 2/3 innings during September and October-a 1.95 HR/9 mark that’s uncharacteristic for him. Even so, his sinker remained a weapon, with a Statcast run value of 15 and strong vertical movement.
There’s some risk in signing a pitcher entering his mid-30s to a long-term deal, but Valdez’s profile-groundballs, innings, and a track record of consistency-gives him a high floor. And the market’s been kind to starters this winter.
Cease got seven years despite an uneven walk year. Suarez landed five years and $130 million from Boston, even topping some projections.
The only notable starter to settle for fewer years was Tatsuya Imai, who took a three-year, $54 million deal from Houston.
Valdez should land somewhere in that upper tier, especially in terms of AAV. Whether that somewhere is Toronto remains to be seen. But if the Jays are still looking to add one more arm to push them over the top, Valdez would be a strong-if expensive-final piece.