The Blue Jays are heading into an offseason where every dollar matters, and arbitration is going to take a real bite out of the budget.
Toronto already has more than $100 million coming off the books with departing free agents, but the club still needs a clear read on what its arbitration cases will cost before it can map out the rest of the winter. For players with at least three years in the majors but fewer than six, arbitration is the stage where contract talks get sorted out before free agency ever comes into play.
MLB Trade Rumors has leaned on Matt Swartz’s model for years to project those numbers, and Darragh McDonald recently laid out the predictions for all 30 teams, including Toronto’s eight arbitration-eligible players.
The list is split evenly between pitchers and position players, and if these projections hold, the Blue Jays’ arms look especially affordable. That starts with Louis Varland, who is coming off an elite season as closer and is projected to land just a couple hundred thousand shy of $4 million in 2027.
That figure stands out even more when compared with David Bednar, who made over $9 million in 2026. Varland’s season made it feel like a win every time he took the mound, and more often than not, that’s exactly how it played out.
Ernie Clement is on the other end of the spectrum. He opened the year with a historic run that earned him his first All-Star nod, but his 250-point OPS drop from the first half to the second half raises real questions.
Clement made $4.6 million in 2026, and with the way he finished the season during a playoff race, a $3 million raise does not seem likely.
Toronto is trying to avoid another season like 2027’s last-place, losing-record outcome, and that makes Ross Atkins’ job pretty straightforward: be aggressive. Getting a handle on the arbitration bill is one important part of that picture.
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