When the Blue Jays made a move for Shane Bieber at the 2025 trade deadline, they knew they weren’t getting a finished product - at least not right away. Bieber was still working his way back from Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season, and he hadn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in 2025 when Toronto pulled the trigger. The Guardians got prospect Khal Stephens in return, and the Jays got a former Cy Young winner they hoped could help them in October.
Bieber didn’t debut for Toronto until August 22, and while the sample size was small, the results were encouraging. In seven regular-season starts, he posted a 3.57 ERA over 40.1 innings, holding opposing hitters to a .225/.264/.417 slash line. Not dominant, but solid - especially for a guy still shaking off rust after a year-plus layoff.
Let’s be clear: this wasn’t just a deadline rental. The Jays brought Bieber in with the postseason in mind, and in that regard, the gamble mostly paid off.
He made five starts and one relief appearance in the playoffs, finishing with a 3.86 ERA. But, as is often the case with pitchers, it’s the one rough outing that sticks in fans’ memories - that lone relief appearance left more of a mark than his otherwise steady playoff work.
Now, heading into 2026, Bieber remains a Blue Jay after surprising some by exercising his player option. There was a general expectation that he’d test free agency, but he stayed put. That decision might make more sense in light of recent news: the team says he’s dealing with “arm fatigue,” and there’s a chance he won’t be ready to start the season on the active roster.
Now, “arm fatigue” can mean a lot of things. It might be a minor blip on the radar, or it could be a red flag for something more serious.
After Tommy John, any mention of arm issues naturally raises eyebrows. The Jays haven’t sounded the alarm, but this situation is definitely one to monitor.
Bieber turns 31 in May and is entering his ninth big-league season. His résumé is impressive: a Cy Young Award, multiple All-Star nods, MVP votes, a Gold Glove, and the rare pitcher’s Triple Crown during the shortened 2020 season when he led the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
Over 141 career starts, he’s racked up a 66-34 record, a 3.24 ERA, and 883.1 innings of work. His career bWAR sits at 18.5 - a strong foundation for a potential Hall of Fame case, but only if he can stay healthy and productive into his 30s.
That’s the big question now. Bieber has the pedigree, the pitch mix, and the experience. But health is the variable that could define the next chapter of his career - and by extension, his impact on the Jays’ rotation.
As for his arsenal, Bieber brings a five-pitch mix that gives him plenty of tools to work with. His four-seam fastball averaged 92.6 mph last season, and he complements it with a slider, knuckle curve, changeup, and cutter. He’s never been a pure power pitcher, but his command and sequencing have made him effective even when the velocity isn’t overpowering.
Projections from Steamer peg him for 24 starts and 143 innings in 2026, with a 3.87 ERA. That’s a solid mid-rotation profile - and if that’s what the Jays get, it’ll be a win, especially considering the uncertainty around his health.
Toronto’s rotation depth will be tested, as it always is over the course of a season. As we’ve seen time and again, even the best-laid rotation plans rarely go untouched. Bieber’s presence gives the Jays a high-upside arm with postseason experience, but they’ll need to manage his workload carefully.
If he can stay on the mound, Bieber has the potential to be a difference-maker. But for now, the Jays - and their fans - are holding their breath.