The Blue Jays’ winter search for pitching is going to cover plenty of ground, and Clay Holmes figures to be part of that conversation.
Ross Atkins and this front office have never been shy about casting a wide net, so it makes sense that Toronto would at least kick the tires on the former New York Yankees closer, who has settled in nicely as a full-time starter since 2025. But if the Blue Jays go down that road, they need to be clear-eyed about what they’re buying.
Holmes was limited to 18 starts in 2026 because of injuries, but when he was on the mound, he gave the Mets and Cubs some of the best work of his career. In 101.1 innings, he posted a 3.29 ERA and a 126 ERA+, while also keeping the ball in the park at a strong 0.5 HR/9 clip.
Still, there are reasons to think that kind of production may not hold. His second-half stint after being dealt from the Mets to the Cubs raised some flags.
Even with a move to a Cubs club that was arguably the best defensive team in baseball, Holmes didn’t take another step forward. Instead, his ERA climbed to 4.25, with a 1.295 WHIP and a 4.09 FIP.
That’s the part that should matter to Toronto. Holmes is built around getting hitters to put the ball on the ground and avoiding barrels, and he was excellent in both areas in 2026.
But the rest of the profile was much shakier. His 10% walk rate ranked in the 29th percentile, and his strikeout rate sat in the bottom quarter of the league at 18.6%.
In other words, a lot of his success depends on balls in play going his way. If a few more grounders leak through the infield instead of being turned into outs, the line can change fast.
That’s where the Blue Jays’ own defense comes into the picture, and it’s not a comforting fit. Andrés Giménez was elite at shortstop, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. probably deserved the Gold Glove at first base, but Kazuma Okamoto and Ernie Clement were subpar at third and second base, respectively. As currently built, this is not a club that looks ready to rescue pitchers with its gloves.
None of that means Holmes should be off the table. At the right price, he could still help.
The caution is about expectations. Toronto shouldn’t be paying him like a pitcher who’s going to live in the low-3.00s.
More likely, he’s a 4.00 ERA arm in Toronto. That can still play if the contract matches the production. But if the Blue Jays are shopping for upside, there are other options with more of it.
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