If the Blue Jays are serious about squeezing every last run out of this roster, the first place they should start is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his spot in the order.
That’s the uncomfortable truth hanging over Toronto right now: Guerrero is still being penciled in near the top of the lineup almost every night, even though the production hasn’t matched the billing. He entered Thursday with a .262/.334/.353 slash line, seven home runs, and 46 RBIs.
Across more than 500 plate appearances, his OPS+ sat at 91 and his wRC+ at 95. That’s below average, and it’s hard to keep pretending otherwise.
The deeper numbers make the picture even sharper. Guerrero’s expected batting average, bat speed, and K-rate are still elite, but the quality of his contact has fallen off badly.
His average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate are all the lowest of his career by a wide margin. This isn’t just bad luck or a few warning-track outs.
The ball isn’t coming off his bat the way it used to.
And the power drought is getting impossible to ignore. Guerrero hasn’t hit a home run at Rogers Centre since October 19th, and it’s been over a full calendar year since he went deep at home in the regular season.
When you fold in the playoffs, it’s been almost as long since his last homer anywhere. For a player of his stature, that’s a stunning slide.
Still, manager John Schneider has stayed committed to batting Guerrero second or third. He doesn’t view a move down the order as a punishment, and he’s said there isn’t another hitter crushing the ball enough to take over the 3-hole. The lineup, in his view, is built to “centre around Vlad.”
But the Blue Jays are running out of room for loyalty-based decisions. The meritocracy angle matters here. Toronto talked all spring about letting results determine roles, and even though injuries scrambled that plan on the pitching side, the same logic should apply to the lineup whenever possible.
There’s also recent history for Schneider to lean on. In 2022, he dropped a slumping Bo Bichette to seventh, and Bichette answered with the best month of his career. George Springer has also been moved out of his preferred leadoff spot at different points during his time in Toronto.
Right now, Brett Bateman looks locked into the leadoff job. Behind him, the Blue Jays could mix and match Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Kazuma Okamoto, then consider someone like Nathan Lukes or Ernie Clement depending on the matchup before getting to Guerrero.
Would moving him down feel dramatic? Sure.
But Toronto is in that kind of spot. The team is hanging onto thin playoff hopes, and it can’t keep living with its supposed centerpiece coming up with runners on base and emptying innings.
At some point, the lineup has to reflect what’s actually happening, not what the front office hoped would happen when it built the roster around an MVP-level version of Guerrero.
Right now, that version isn’t there. And players who are producing at a below-replacement level usually don’t belong in the three-hole.
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For Toronto, Romanos career arc still carries a familiar relevance because he remains one of the most accomplished Canadian relievers in the game, with 126 career saves ranking third all-time among his countrymen. His latest stretch is less about nostalgia than it is about whether he can turn this rebound into something more lasting, especially after the detour through Anaheim raised fresh questions about where his next big opportunity might come from. [Read more 🡒]