Shane Bieber’s next contract figures to be modest by his standards, but that doesn’t mean the market will be quiet around him.
The 31-year-old right-hander is heading into the offseason as one of Toronto’s most notable pending free agents, and his profile still carries real weight. He’s a former Cy Young Award winner, and if a team believes the healthy version is still in there, Bieber could draw plenty of attention despite the uneven 2026 season.
Health is the obvious swing factor. Bieber made 11 appearances last year and finished 5-2 with a 4.37 ERA, the highest mark of his career since his rookie season in 2018. Even so, his track record makes him a clear bounce-back candidate, whether that rebound happens back in Toronto or somewhere else.
Spotrac is projecting Bieber for a one-year, $13.1 million deal, the kind of prove-it contract that would give him a chance to rebuild value after a rough year and a stretch of injury issues in recent seasons.
If Toronto decides that price is too rich, three clubs could jump into the mix.
The Chicago Cubs look like one of the cleanest fits. Their rotation needs help, and the depth chart makes the need even more obvious with several pitchers heading toward free agency, including Shota Imanaga, Aaron Civale, and former Blue Jays standout Kevin Gausman. A team that thin on dependable starting pitching could absolutely push harder for Bieber than the Jays might want.
The Atlanta Braves also make sense on paper. They’re set to lose Tyler Mahle and Martin Perez to free agency, and while their staff held up well in the postseason against the Los Angeles Dodgers - giving up four runs or fewer in three of four NLDS games - there’s still room to add. Atlanta’s starters finished with the sixth best ERA in the majors last season, but their 4.25 FIP ranked 20th, a reminder that the performance wasn’t as clean as the surface numbers suggested.
Then there’s Baltimore, which already has a recent history of taking a Blue Jays arm. The Orioles landed Chris Bassitt last winter, and a run at Bieber wouldn’t be a shock.
Baltimore’s rotation needs an upgrade if it wants to take a step forward in 2027, with its starters posting a 4.23 FIP that ranked 18th and a 4.24 ERA that ranked 17th. If Bieber found his top form there, he could become a major addition to the front of that rotation.
Toronto itself still has a seat at the table, too.
At the projected $13.1 million price, the Blue Jays would actually be spending about $3 million less than what they paid Bieber for those 11 starts in 2026. That matters, especially when the final two outings before his season ended on the injured list in August were so sharp. Against the Yankees and Rays, he combined for 13 innings, allowed just two runs, one earned, on seven hits, and struck out 12 while walking one.
That late stretch is exactly why Bieber remains interesting. If Toronto believes that was the real version of him, then a one-year deal at that number starts to look awfully sensible.
In Other News...
Former Blue Jays Outfielder Lands At Center Of Serious Fraud Allegations
A former Blue Jays outfielder has landed in serious legal trouble in Ontario, where Rich Butler and his wife Michelle are facing allegations tied to a youth baseball program. Durham Regional Police say the case centers on money taken from families involved with the Ontario Devils Rays, a situation that has put an uncomfortable spotlight on a name familiar to Toronto fans.
The allegations cover a stretch from April through October 2025, with police saying the couple falsely claimed the program was going bankrupt. Investigators found no evidence of any bankruptcy filing, leaving families and the youth baseball community with plenty of questions as the fraud case moves forward. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Face A Tough Kevin Gausman Reunion Decision
Kevin Gausmans name is back in the conversation in Toronto, and for good reason. The veteran right-hander was a fixture in the Blue Jays rotation before being dealt to the Cubs at the deadline, and his track record with the club still gives any reunion a certain appeal. Even with Torontos rotation taking shape and several internal candidates battling for spots, there is still room to wonder whether the front office would consider a shorter-term move for a pitcher it knows well.
The hesitation is just as obvious. Gausmans most recent season was a step back, the kind of downturn that makes any return feel more complicated than sentimental, especially for a team trying to balance stability with upside on the mound. Toronto has options it can sort through already, which leaves the question less about whether Gausman fits in theory and more about whether the club wants to bet on a reunion when the market opens. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Trade Idea Would Solve One Problem But Not Another
Torontos search for a steadier everyday outfield presence could push it toward the trade market again, and one name that fits the profile is a contact-first, defense-minded hitter from Cleveland. The Blue Jays have a recent history of doing business with the Guardians, and this kind of move would check an obvious box for a club looking to bring more consistency to the lineup while tightening up the outfield behind its pitching staff.
The appeal is easy to see: reliable defense, a strong on-base skill set, and a player whose value goes beyond pure power. The trick is that even a clean fit on paper does not solve every problem, and the Blue Jays would still have to decide whether this kind of addition truly changes the shape of the offense enough to matter over a long season. [Read more 🡒]