The Blue Jays are staring at a fairly delicate call on Shane Bieber, and the decision is not really about chasing the version of him that once sat among the game’s elite. It’s about figuring out what a healthier Bieber might still give Toronto now.
That’s where the real debate starts. Bieber has not topped 100 innings in a season since he worked 128 innings across 21 starts for the Cleveland Guardians in 2023. That came after he finished seventh in American League Cy Young voting in 2022 and three years after winning the award in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Over the last three seasons, from ages 29 through 31, Bieber has produced 2.1 bWAR, gone 11-4 and posted a 3.58 ERA in 20 starts. Most of that line came in his last two seasons with Toronto, over a stretch in which he has faced only 401 batters.
That’s a useful sample, but not a huge one. For perspective, Dylan Cease saw 401 batters in just the first half of the 2026 season.
So Toronto is not making a simple performance evaluation here. Bieber is finishing a two-year, $26 million contract, and five days after the World Series ends, he’ll hit free agency. At that point, the Blue Jays will have to decide whether he fits into their plans going forward.
His arm health is the obvious starting point, and it underscores how much risk would come with any new deal. Still, Bieber has made it clear he wants to return, and when Ross Atkins was asked about that possibility at his end-of-regular-season press conference, the Blue Jays general manager said: “the team will work through a process” before making a decision.
That doesn’t sound like a closed door. It sounds like a team leaving itself room to keep talking, maybe on a lower-value deal that could make sense for both sides.
The numbers from this season show why the conversation is complicated. Bieber logged just 17 2/3 innings and carried a 5.35 xFIP in the first half, then improved to 3.95 after returning in August. He also posted his best K/BB rate, 3.67, during that second-half stretch.
Even then, one issue stuck around: right-handed hitters. They finished with an .834 OPS against him.
And yet there was still evidence Bieber could handle pressure. His rougher moments often came in innings that didn’t look especially dangerous on the surface. That helps explain why opponents did more damage in low-leverage spots, where they hit .886 against him, compared with .667 in medium leverage and .717 in high leverage.
Toronto gets the last word here. Unless the Blue Jays go shopping elsewhere, which seems unlikely given how they’ve operated lately, Bieber returning next season remains very much on the table.
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Chisholm has said he wants to stay in New York, but his offseason still carries real uncertainty, and that has opened the door to a possible move elsewhere if the Yankees and the infielder go their separate ways. From Torontos perspective, that is at least worth monitoring as the club looks for ways to add more impact to its lineup, leaving the Blue Jays in position to watch a situation that could end up reshaping one of the divisions more intriguing winter markets. [Read more 🡒]