The Blue Jays have a tricky Rule 5 call coming, and this group of prospects shows exactly why. Some have done enough to look like real 40-man candidates. Others still feel like longer-term bets Toronto can afford to leave exposed.
Peyton Williams sits near the top of the “protect him” list. The 25-year-old left-handed hitting first baseman, nicknamed the "Iowa Meat Truck," climbed from Single-A to High-A to Triple-A this season, skipping Double-A until a recent return to New Hampshire because of roster crunches.
He should be back with Buffalo before the year is over. Across those three levels, Williams has hit 15 home runs while posting a 10.8 percent walk rate, a .204 ISO, a .351 on-base percentage, a .470 slugging percentage and a 114 wRC+.
That blend of power and patience is the kind of package that can draw attention in the Rule 5 Draft. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has first base locked down, but Toronto could still use Williams as left-handed power insurance at first or in the DH mix.
Josh Kasevich is in a similar spot, even if his road to Toronto has been blocked all season. The 25-year-old shortstop and third baseman has kept making contact, handled multiple infield spots and given the organization a possible upper-level bench option.
The problem is that Andrés Giménez has handled shortstop, Kazuma Okamoto has held third, and Toronto has rotated through a long list of utility types in Davis Schneider, Charles McAdoo, Luis Urías, Lenyn Sosa and Josh Smith. Still, MLB Pipeline ranks Kasevich as the Blue Jays’ No. 14 prospect and projected him for big-league time this season with a 2026 ETA.
He’s hitting .287 with a .364 on-base percentage and an 11.1 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A Buffalo, numbers that could easily appeal to another club looking for a bench piece.
Alexis Hernandez is the most intriguing name of the bunch because Toronto already knows what it looks like to bring him in through the Rule 5 process. The Blue Jays selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft in 2023 from the Red Sox system, and now they may need to decide whether he has earned protection from the major league phase.
The 23-year-old outfielder reached only Double-A this year, but his production demands attention: in 98 games across two levels, he hit .299/.388/.497 with a .347 BABIP, 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases and a 133 wRC+. He can also handle all three outfield spots, which only strengthens his case.
Toronto’s outfield situation could shift this winter, with Jesús Sánchez a non-tender candidate and Myles Straw’s $8-million club option still on the table, so Hernandez’s mix of power, speed and defensive flexibility could be useful.
Those are the names that look worth the 40-man investment. On the other side, Josh Stephan, TJ Brock and Victor Arias feel more like risks Toronto can live with.
Stephan, acquired from the Rangers at the deadline in the deal that also brought Josh Smith to Toronto and sent Canadian left-hander Adam Macko the other way, may still be part of the organization’s development plans. But his Triple-A numbers don’t scream must-protect.
In five starts with Buffalo, the 24-year-old right-hander has a 5.97 ERA and 4.82 FIP over 28.2 innings, along with a 7.85 K/9 and a .274 opponents’ BABIP. That profile doesn’t suggest a pitcher another club would be eager to stash for an entire season.
Brock’s case is even more straightforward. Since Toronto drafted him in the sixth round in 2022, injuries have kept him from building much of a track record.
His only full healthy season came in 2023, when he threw 52.2 innings across High-A and Double-A. He missed all of 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and this year’s return has been rough in a tiny sample: 8.22 ERA and 7.38 FIP in 7.2 innings.
Any team taking him would have to believe he’s fully back and ready for the majors right away.
Arias is the clearest “not yet” among the outfield group. The 23-year-old also reached Double-A and flashed some pop, including 10 home runs in 83 games with New Hampshire, but the overall line is still light: .227/.278/.387. MLB Pipeline has him as Toronto’s No. 26 prospect, but that production doesn’t look like the kind that would push another team to carry him in the majors for a full season.
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